Partidul Național Liberal
Voting Intentions
Last result: 13.2% (General Election of 1 December 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 16.2% | 12.7–20.1% | 12.3–20.6% | 12.0–21.1% | 11.3–22.0% |
| 12–15 January 2026 | INSCOP informat.ro |
13.5% | 12.3–15.0% | 11.9–15.3% | 11.6–15.7% | 11.1–16.4% |
| 10–19 December 2025 | CURS | 19.0% | 17.5–20.6% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.8–21.5% | 16.1–22.3% |
| 25 October–2 November 2025 | INSCOP Informat.ro |
14.6% | 13.8–15.5% | 13.6–15.7% | 13.4–15.9% | 13.0–16.3% |
| 14–26 October 2025 | CURS | 15.0% | 13.6–16.5% | 13.2–16.9% | 12.9–17.3% | 12.3–18.0% |
| 6–10 October 2025 | INSCOP informat.ro |
14.8% | 13.5–16.3% | 13.2–16.7% | 12.8–17.1% | 12.2–17.8% |
| 5–19 September 2025 | CURS | 16.0% | 14.6–17.5% | 14.3–17.9% | 13.9–18.3% | 13.3–19.0% |
| 9–18 September 2025 | Avangarde | 13.0% | 11.9–14.3% | 11.6–14.6% | 11.3–15.0% | 10.8–15.6% |
| 1–9 September 2025 | INSCOP informat.ro |
15.1% | 13.8–16.6% | 13.5–17.0% | 13.1–17.4% | 12.5–18.1% |
| 21–23 July 2025 | Sociopol RomâniaTV |
15.0% | 13.6–16.5% | 13.2–16.9% | 12.9–17.3% | 12.3–18.1% |
| 15–23 July 2025 | INSOMAR | 14.4% | 13.1–15.9% | 12.7–16.4% | 12.4–16.7% | 11.8–17.5% |
| 10–12 July 2025 | FlashData | 16.0% | 15.5–16.6% | 15.3–16.7% | 15.2–16.9% | 14.9–17.1% |
| 4–10 July 2025 | CURS | 15.0% | 13.7–16.5% | 13.3–16.9% | 13.0–17.3% | 12.4–18.0% |
| 20–26 June 2025 | INSCOP informat.ro |
17.3% | 15.9–18.8% | 15.5–19.2% | 15.2–19.6% | 14.6–20.3% |
| 26–30 May 2025 | INSCOP | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–30 May 2025 | CURS | 14.0% | 12.8–15.3% | 12.5–15.7% | 12.2–16.0% | 11.6–16.6% |
| 26–28 May 2025 | Sociopol RomâniaTV |
14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.3% | 11.4–17.0% |
| 23–28 May 2025 | Avangarde | 16.0% | 14.8–17.4% | 14.4–17.8% | 14.1–18.1% | 13.5–18.8% |
| 24–26 April 2025 | FlashData | 15.0% | 14.5–15.5% | 14.3–15.7% | 14.2–15.8% | 14.0–16.1% |
| 3–5 April 2025 | FlashData | 13.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–28 March 2025 | Verifield | 15.0% | 13.7–16.5% | 13.3–16.9% | 13.0–17.2% | 12.4–18.0% |
| 14–16 February 2025 | FlashData | 12.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–25 January 2025 | CURS | 15.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–16 January 2025 | Avangarde | 13.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Partidul Național Liberal.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 7% | 99.0% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 17% | 92% | Last Result |
| 13.5–14.5% | 17% | 76% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 7% | 59% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 2% | 52% | Median |
| 16.5–17.5% | 4% | 49% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 12% | 45% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 16% | 33% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 11% | 17% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 5% | 6% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 49 seats (General Election of 1 December 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 55 | 44–68 | 43–70 | 42–72 | 39–75 |
| 12–15 January 2026 | INSCOP informat.ro |
47 | 43–52 | 42–53 | 40–55 | 39–57 |
| 10–19 December 2025 | CURS | 64 | 58–70 | 57–72 | 56–73 | 53–76 |
| 25 October–2 November 2025 | INSCOP Informat.ro |
51 | 48–54 | 47–54 | 47–55 | 45–56 |
| 14–26 October 2025 | CURS | 49 | 44–54 | 43–55 | 42–56 | 40–59 |
| 6–10 October 2025 | INSCOP informat.ro |
52 | 47–57 | 46–58 | 45–59 | 43–62 |
| 5–19 September 2025 | CURS | 54 | 49–59 | 47–61 | 46–62 | 44–65 |
| 9–18 September 2025 | Avangarde | 44 | 41–49 | 39–50 | 38–51 | 37–53 |
| 1–9 September 2025 | INSCOP informat.ro |
52 | 48–57 | 46–58 | 45–60 | 43–62 |
| 21–23 July 2025 | Sociopol RomâniaTV |
52 | 47–56 | 45–58 | 44–60 | 42–61 |
| 15–23 July 2025 | INSOMAR | 53 | 47–57 | 45–58 | 44–60 | 42–63 |
| 10–12 July 2025 | FlashData | 54 | 52–56 | 52–56 | 51–57 | 50–58 |
| 4–10 July 2025 | CURS | 52 | 47–57 | 46–58 | 44–60 | 42–62 |
| 20–26 June 2025 | INSCOP informat.ro |
60 | 54–65 | 53–66 | 52–68 | 50–70 |
| 26–30 May 2025 | INSCOP | |||||
| 26–30 May 2025 | CURS | 46 | 42–51 | 41–52 | 40–53 | 38–55 |
| 26–28 May 2025 | Sociopol RomâniaTV |
51 | 46–56 | 45–58 | 44–59 | 41–62 |
| 23–28 May 2025 | Avangarde | 56 | 53–62 | 52–62 | 50–63 | 47–65 |
| 24–26 April 2025 | FlashData | 64 | 62–66 | 61–67 | 61–68 | 60–69 |
| 3–5 April 2025 | FlashData | |||||
| 24–28 March 2025 | Verifield | 51 | 46–55 | 45–57 | 44–59 | 42–62 |
| 14–16 February 2025 | FlashData | |||||
| 21–25 January 2025 | CURS | |||||
| 10–16 January 2025 | Avangarde |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Partidul Național Liberal.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 41 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 42 | 2% | 98% | |
| 43 | 3% | 96% | |
| 44 | 4% | 93% | |
| 45 | 4% | 89% | |
| 46 | 6% | 85% | |
| 47 | 6% | 80% | |
| 48 | 6% | 74% | |
| 49 | 4% | 68% | Last Result |
| 50 | 4% | 64% | |
| 51 | 3% | 60% | |
| 52 | 2% | 56% | |
| 53 | 2% | 54% | |
| 54 | 1.3% | 52% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 51% | Median |
| 56 | 1.3% | 50% | |
| 57 | 2% | 48% | |
| 58 | 2% | 47% | |
| 59 | 3% | 45% | |
| 60 | 3% | 42% | |
| 61 | 4% | 39% | |
| 62 | 4% | 35% | |
| 63 | 4% | 31% | |
| 64 | 4% | 27% | |
| 65 | 5% | 23% | |
| 66 | 4% | 18% | |
| 67 | 4% | 14% | |
| 68 | 3% | 11% | |
| 69 | 2% | 8% | |
| 70 | 2% | 6% | |
| 71 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 72 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |