DéFI
Voting Intentions
Last result: 2.5% (General Election of 25 May 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 4.0% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.7% |
| 6–14 May 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
| 25 March–14 April 2019 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.7% |
| 5–11 February 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4.3% | 3.6–5.3% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.8% | 2.9–6.3% |
| 19 November–8 December 2018 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
3.3% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.4–4.6% | 2.1–5.1% |
| 27 November–3 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
4.2% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| 20–27 September 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
6.9% | 6.0–8.0% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.2% |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5.9% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.2–8.1% |
| 26 February–17 March 2018 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
5.6% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.4–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
| 27 February–6 March 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.5–8.6% |
| 27 November–4 December 2017 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
6.5% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.1–8.2% | 4.7–8.8% |
| 11 September–5 October 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
5.8% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.7–7.1% | 4.5–7.3% | 4.1–7.8% |
| 25 August–3 September 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
6.2% | 5.3–7.4% | 5.1–7.7% | 4.9–8.0% | 4.5–8.5% |
| 23–27 June 2017 | Dedicated MR |
3.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.8–5.3% | 2.6–5.7% | 2.2–6.3% |
| 16–20 March 2017 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
2.4% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.6–3.6% | 1.4–3.8% | 1.2–4.3% |
| 16–17 February 2017 | iVox Sudpresse |
4.5% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.0–6.5% |
| 10–17 January 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.9% | 1.9–4.1% | 1.7–4.5% |
| 28–24 November 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
2.6% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.8–3.8% | 1.6–4.1% | 1.4–4.6% |
| 19–25 September 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
2.4% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.6–3.6% | 1.4–4.0% |
| 2–6 September 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
2.9% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.5% | 1.6–5.0% |
| 6–12 May 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
3.3% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.3–4.6% | 2.1–5.0% |
| 31 March–4 April 2016 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.7–3.4% | 1.6–3.6% | 1.4–3.9% |
| 15–20 January 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
3.4% | 2.8–4.2% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.2–5.1% |
| 3–7 December 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
3.2% | 2.5–4.1% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.2–4.5% | 2.0–5.0% |
| 28 September–4 October 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
1.7% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.5% | 1.0–2.7% | 0.9–3.0% |
| 9–14 September 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
2.6% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.8–3.9% | 1.7–4.2% | 1.4–4.7% |
| 12–18 May 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
2.9% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.5% | 1.6–5.0% |
| 20–24 April 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
2.2% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.4–3.4% | 1.2–3.7% |
| 5–9 March 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
2.9% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.5% | 1.6–5.1% |
| 23–28 January 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.5–3.3% | 1.3–3.7% |
| 5–11 January 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.5% |
| 27 November–1 December 2014 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
2.7% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.1% | 1.7–4.3% | 1.5–4.8% |
| 5–9 September 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
1.8% | 1.3–2.6% | 1.1–2.9% | 1.0–3.1% | 0.8–3.5% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for DéFI.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 24% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 3.5–4.5% | 58% | 75% | Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 16% | 17% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 25 May 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| 6–14 May 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| 25 March–14 April 2019 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| 5–11 February 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–4 |
| 19 November–8 December 2018 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 27 November–3 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 20–27 September 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5 | 3–5 | 2–6 | 2–7 | 1–7 |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 0–5 |
| 26 February–17 March 2018 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
2 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 27 February–6 March 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
4 | 2–5 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–6 |
| 27 November–4 December 2017 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 1–5 | 1–6 |
| 11 September–5 October 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
2 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| 25 August–3 September 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
4 | 2–5 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 0–6 |
| 23–27 June 2017 | Dedicated MR |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
| 16–20 March 2017 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16–17 February 2017 | iVox Sudpresse |
1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–4 |
| 10–17 January 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 28–24 November 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 19–25 September 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2–6 September 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 6–12 May 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 31 March–4 April 2016 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15–20 January 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 3–7 December 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 28 September–4 October 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9–14 September 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 12–18 May 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 20–24 April 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5–9 March 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 23–28 January 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5–11 January 2015 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws–Le Soir–RTL Tvi–VTM |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 November–1 December 2014 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 5–9 September 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for DéFI.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 16% | 17% | |
| 2 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |