Partidul Mișcarea Populară
Voting Intentions
Last result: 4.8% (General Election of 6 December 2020)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 3.4% | 1.2–4.6% | 1.0–4.9% | 0.9–5.2% | 0.7–5.7% |
| 26–30 December 2023 | CURS | 4.0% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.5–6.1% |
| 16–28 December 2023 | ARA Public Opinion | 3.6% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.7–4.7% | 2.6–5.0% | 2.3–5.4% |
| 20–27 November 2023 | INSCOP News.ro |
1.3% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.6–2.5% |
| 23 October–2 November 2023 | INSCOP News.ro |
1.7% | 1.3–2.3% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–3.0% |
| 15–22 September 2023 | INSCOP News.ro |
1.7% | 1.3–2.2% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.5% | 1.0–2.7% |
| 12–22 September 2023 | CURS | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.8% |
| 28–31 August 2023 | INSOMAR | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| 8–20 July 2023 | CURS | 4.0% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 1–30 June 2023 | INSCOP | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1 May–30 June 2023 | Geeks for Democracy | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–27 May 2023 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 12–17 May 2023 | CURS | 5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–20 March 2023 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.4% | 3.5–6.9% |
| 5–19 February 2023 | INSCOP | 2.9% | 2.5–3.3% | 2.4–3.5% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.2–3.8% |
| 1–13 February 2023 | INSCOP | 3.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27–30 January 2023 | Atlas Intel | 6.1% | 5.5–6.9% | 5.3–7.1% | 5.2–7.3% | 4.9–7.7% |
| 10–20 January 2023 | CURS | 4.0% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 1–31 December 2022 | INSCOP | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–22 November 2022 | CURS | 4.0% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 1–31 October 2022 | Sociopol | 1.9% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% | 1.2–3.1% | 1.0–3.5% |
| 8–22 September 2022 | CURS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–31 August 2022 | Sociopol | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–17 August 2022 | CURS | 4.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–31 July 2022 | Avangarde | 4.0% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.6–6.0% |
| 22–30 June 2022 | Avangarde | 4.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–26 May 2022 | CURS | 5.8% | 5.3–6.4% | 5.1–6.6% | 5.0–6.8% | 4.8–7.1% |
| 12–20 April 2022 | Avangarde | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 28 March–11 April 2022 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.5–5.6% | 4.4–5.8% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% |
| 22–29 March 2022 | Avangarde | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–11 March 2022 | CURS | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.7% |
| 2–7 March 2022 | INSCOP | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–19 February 2022 | Sociopol | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| 20–31 January 2022 | Avangarde | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–29 January 2022 | CURS | 3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.7% |
| 10–18 January 2022 | INSCOP | 2.1% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.5–3.2% | 1.3–3.5% |
| 15–23 December 2021 | Avangarde | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.8–4.8% |
| 17–22 December 2021 | Sociopol | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 13–17 December 2021 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 16–24 November 2021 | Avangarde | 4.0% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.6–6.0% |
| 17–22 November 2021 | CURS | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.8% |
| 25–30 October 2021 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 17–26 October 2021 | Avangarde | 4.0% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.6–6.0% |
| 15–25 October 2021 | INSCOP | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% | 1.8–4.5% |
| 12–20 October 2021 | CURS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–17 October 2021 | INSCOP | 2.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–15 October 2021 | Sociopol | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26–29 September 2021 | Gazeta Civică | 5.4% | 4.6–6.3% | 4.4–6.6% | 4.3–6.8% | 3.9–7.3% |
| 28 September 2021 | INSOMAR | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| 15–27 September 2021 | INSCOP | 2.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14–21 September 2021 | Avangarde | 4.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–10 September 2021 | CURS | 5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–5 September 2021 | CURS | 5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–24 August 2021 | Avangarde | 5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–20 August 2021 | CURS | 5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 15–19 August 2021 | IRES | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 1–15 July 2021 | Sociopol | 2.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–15 July 2021 | INSOMAR Realitatea.net |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–18 June 2021 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.4% | 3.5–6.9% |
| 1–15 June 2021 | INSOMAR Realitatea.net |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–15 June 2021 | INSCOP | 2.8% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 2.0–4.0% | 1.8–4.4% |
| 1–31 May 2021 | Sociopol | 2.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–31 May 2021 | IRES | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–31 May 2021 | Avangarde | 2.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7 May 2021 | INSOMAR Realitatea.net |
4.6% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.8% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.1–6.5% |
| 14–17 April 2021 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.4% | 3.5–6.9% |
| 30 March–11 April 2021 | BCS | 4.2% | 3.6–5.0% | 3.4–5.2% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.0–5.8% |
| 12–28 March 2021 | Sociopol | 3.0% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.0–4.3% | 1.8–4.8% |
| 1–12 March 2021 | INSCOP | 3.8% | 3.2–4.7% | 3.0–4.9% | 2.8–5.1% | 2.5–5.6% |
| 22–26 February 2021 | CURS | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.6% |
| 9–11 February 2021 | INSOMAR Realitatea.net |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.8% |
| 15–17 January 2021 | Avangarde | 3.0% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.5% | 1.7–5.0% |
| 11–15 January 2021 | CURS | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.6% |
| 17–21 December 2020 | CURS | 2.0% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.4% |
| 10–20 December 2020 | Avangarde | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Partidul Mișcarea Populară.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 0.5–1.5% | 24% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 10% | 76% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 21% | 66% | Median |
| 3.5–4.5% | 34% | 45% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 10% | 11% | Last Result |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 6 December 2020)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–18 | 0–21 |
| 26–30 December 2023 | CURS | 0 | 0 | 0–18 | 0–19 | 0–22 |
| 16–28 December 2023 | ARA Public Opinion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–20 |
| 20–27 November 2023 | INSCOP News.ro |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 October–2 November 2023 | INSCOP News.ro |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15–22 September 2023 | INSCOP News.ro |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12–22 September 2023 | CURS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–18 | 0–20 |
| 28–31 August 2023 | INSOMAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8–20 July 2023 | CURS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–18 | 0–20 |
| 1–30 June 2023 | INSCOP | |||||
| 1 May–30 June 2023 | Geeks for Democracy | |||||
| 19–27 May 2023 | CURS | 0 | 0–20 | 0–21 | 0–22 | 0–24 |
| 12–17 May 2023 | CURS | |||||
| 10–20 March 2023 | CURS | 0 | 0–21 | 0–22 | 0–23 | 0–25 |
| 5–19 February 2023 | INSCOP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1–13 February 2023 | INSCOP | |||||
| 27–30 January 2023 | Atlas Intel | 21 | 19–24 | 18–25 | 18–25 | 0–27 |
| 10–20 January 2023 | CURS | 0 | 0–18 | 0–19 | 0–19 | 0–20 |
| 1–31 December 2022 | INSCOP | |||||
| 8–22 November 2022 | CURS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–21 |
| 1–31 October 2022 | Sociopol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8–22 September 2022 | CURS | |||||
| 1–31 August 2022 | Sociopol | |||||
| 5–17 August 2022 | CURS | |||||
| 22–31 July 2022 | Avangarde | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–19 | 0–21 |
| 22–30 June 2022 | Avangarde | |||||
| 16–26 May 2022 | CURS | 22 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 18–25 | 0–26 |
| 12–20 April 2022 | Avangarde | |||||
| 28 March–11 April 2022 | CURS | 0 | 0–18 | 0–19 | 0–20 | 0–21 |
| 22–29 March 2022 | Avangarde | |||||
| 2–11 March 2022 | CURS | 0 | 0 | 0–19 | 0–20 | 0–22 |
| 2–7 March 2022 | INSCOP | |||||
| 9–19 February 2022 | Sociopol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20–31 January 2022 | Avangarde | |||||
| 22–29 January 2022 | CURS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–20 | 0–21 |
| 10–18 January 2022 | INSCOP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15–23 December 2021 | Avangarde | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17–22 December 2021 | Sociopol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13–17 December 2021 | CURS | 0 | 0–20 | 0–21 | 0–22 | 0–23 |
| 16–24 November 2021 | Avangarde | 0 | 0 | 0–17 | 0–18 | 0–20 |
| 17–22 November 2021 | CURS | 0 | 0 | 0–17 | 0–18 | 0–20 |
| 25–30 October 2021 | CURS | 17 | 0–20 | 0–21 | 0–22 | 0–23 |
| 17–26 October 2021 | Avangarde | 0 | 0 | 0–17 | 0–18 | 0–19 |
| 15–25 October 2021 | INSCOP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12–20 October 2021 | CURS | |||||
| 12–17 October 2021 | INSCOP | |||||
| 11–15 October 2021 | Sociopol | |||||
| 26–29 September 2021 | Gazeta Civică | 18 | 0–21 | 0–22 | 0–23 | 0–24 |
| 28 September 2021 | INSOMAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15–27 September 2021 | INSCOP | |||||
| 14–21 September 2021 | Avangarde | |||||
| 8–10 September 2021 | CURS | |||||
| 3–5 September 2021 | CURS | |||||
| 20–24 August 2021 | Avangarde | |||||
| 12–20 August 2021 | CURS | |||||
| 15–19 August 2021 | IRES | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1–15 July 2021 | Sociopol | |||||
| 1–15 July 2021 | INSOMAR Realitatea.net |
|||||
| 11–18 June 2021 | CURS | 17 | 0–20 | 0–21 | 0–22 | 0–24 |
| 1–15 June 2021 | INSOMAR Realitatea.net |
|||||
| 1–15 June 2021 | INSCOP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1–31 May 2021 | Sociopol | |||||
| 1–31 May 2021 | IRES | |||||
| 1–31 May 2021 | Avangarde | |||||
| 7 May 2021 | INSOMAR Realitatea.net |
0 | 0–19 | 0–20 | 0–21 | 0–23 |
| 14–17 April 2021 | CURS | 0 | 0–20 | 0–21 | 0–21 | 0–23 |
| 30 March–11 April 2021 | BCS | 0 | 0 | 0–17 | 0–18 | 0–19 |
| 12–28 March 2021 | Sociopol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1–12 March 2021 | INSCOP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–17 | 0–19 |
| 22–26 February 2021 | CURS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9–11 February 2021 | INSOMAR Realitatea.net |
0 | 0 | 0–17 | 0–17 | 0–19 |
| 15–17 January 2021 | Avangarde | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11–15 January 2021 | CURS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17–21 December 2020 | CURS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10–20 December 2020 | Avangarde | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Partidul Mișcarea Populară.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 19 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |