Nemuno aušra (S&D)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 12.1% | 8.1–17.4% | 7.6–18.0% | 7.3–18.5% | 6.8–19.4% |
| 11–29 November 2025 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
12.1% | 10.9–13.5% | 10.5–13.9% | 10.2–14.2% | 9.6–14.9% |
| 6–16 November 2025 | Vilmorus Lietuvos Rytas |
16.7% | 15.3–18.3% | 14.9–18.7% | 14.5–19.1% | 13.9–19.9% |
| 16–28 October 2025 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
11.6% | 10.4–13.0% | 10.0–13.4% | 9.8–13.7% | 9.2–14.4% |
| 17–27 October 2025 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
8.5% | 7.4–9.7% | 7.1–10.0% | 6.9–10.3% | 6.4–11.0% |
| 24 September–9 October 2025 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
12.3% | 11.0–13.7% | 10.7–14.1% | 10.4–14.4% | 9.8–15.1% |
| 17–27 September 2025 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
12.7% | 11.4–14.1% | 11.1–14.5% | 10.8–14.9% | 10.2–15.6% |
| 4–13 September 2025 | Vilmorus Lietuvos Rytas |
17.6% | 15.8–19.7% | 15.2–20.3% | 14.8–20.8% | 14.0–21.9% |
| 21 August–2 September 2025 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
11.7% | 10.5–13.1% | 10.2–13.5% | 9.9–13.9% | 9.3–14.6% |
| 18–25 July 2025 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.6–7.2% |
| 19–29 June 2025 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
7.3% | 6.3–8.4% | 6.1–8.7% | 5.8–9.0% | 5.4–9.6% |
| 11–22 June 2025 | Vilmorus Lietuvos Rytas |
15.1% | 13.7–16.6% | 13.3–17.1% | 13.0–17.5% | 12.4–18.2% |
| 26 April–18 May 2025 | Spinter tyrimai | 7.9% | 6.9–9.1% | 6.6–9.4% | 6.4–9.7% | 5.9–10.3% |
| 2–12 May 2025 | Vilmorus Lietuvos Rytas |
12.9% | 11.6–14.4% | 11.3–14.8% | 11.0–15.1% | 10.4–15.9% |
| 19–29 April 2025 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
9.3% | 8.2–10.6% | 7.9–11.0% | 7.7–11.3% | 7.2–11.9% |
| 17–28 April 2025 | Vilmorus Lietuvos Rytas |
18.7% | 17.2–20.4% | 16.8–20.8% | 16.4–21.2% | 15.7–22.1% |
| 5–19 April 2025 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
13.8% | 12.5–15.3% | 12.1–15.7% | 11.8–16.1% | 11.2–16.8% |
| 18–28 March 2025 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
10.4% | 9.1–12.1% | 8.7–12.6% | 8.4–13.0% | 7.8–13.8% |
| 8–24 March 2025 | Baltijos tyrimai Elta |
13.2% | 11.9–14.7% | 11.6–15.1% | 11.3–15.5% | 10.7–16.2% |
| 14–23 February 2025 | Vilmorus Lietuvos Rytas |
21.7% | 20.1–23.4% | 19.6–23.9% | 19.3–24.4% | 18.5–25.2% |
| 25 January–8 February 2025 | Baltijos tyrimai Elta |
17.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–29 January 2025 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
13.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–20 December 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
17.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12 November–1 December 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai | 17.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–16 November 2024 | Vilmorus | 20.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 30 October–12 November 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai | 20.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–25 September 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–21 September 2024 | Vilmorus | 16.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–20 September 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai | 11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–9 August 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai Delfi |
11.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–29 July 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–21 July 2024 | Vilmorus | 9.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21 June–7 July 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai LRT |
9.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–28 June 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
13.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Nemuno aušra (S&D).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 13% | 96% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 12% | 83% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 5% | 71% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 8% | 65% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 12.5–13.5% | 9% | 45% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 3% | 36% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 4% | 33% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 10% | 28% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 10% | 19% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 6% | 8% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 11–29 November 2025 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 6–16 November 2025 | Vilmorus Lietuvos Rytas |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16–28 October 2025 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 17–27 October 2025 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 24 September–9 October 2025 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 17–27 September 2025 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 4–13 September 2025 | Vilmorus Lietuvos Rytas |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 |
| 21 August–2 September 2025 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 18–25 July 2025 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 19–29 June 2025 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| 11–22 June 2025 | Vilmorus Lietuvos Rytas |
2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 26 April–18 May 2025 | Spinter tyrimai | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2–12 May 2025 | Vilmorus Lietuvos Rytas |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 19–29 April 2025 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 17–28 April 2025 | Vilmorus Lietuvos Rytas |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 5–19 April 2025 | Baltijos tyrimai ELTA |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 18–28 March 2025 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 8–24 March 2025 | Baltijos tyrimai Elta |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 14–23 February 2025 | Vilmorus Lietuvos Rytas |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 25 January–8 February 2025 | Baltijos tyrimai Elta |
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| 18–29 January 2025 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
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| 13–20 December 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
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| 12 November–1 December 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai | |||||
| 7–16 November 2024 | Vilmorus | |||||
| 30 October–12 November 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai | |||||
| 16–25 September 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
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| 13–21 September 2024 | Vilmorus | |||||
| 6–20 September 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai | |||||
| 7–9 August 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai Delfi |
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| 19–29 July 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
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| 11–21 July 2024 | Vilmorus | |||||
| 21 June–7 July 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai LRT |
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| 18–28 June 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Nemuno aušra (S&D).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 58% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 42% | 42% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |