Attīstībai/Par!
Voting Intentions
Last result: 12.0% (General Election of 6 October 2018)
Confidence Intervals
Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N/A | Poll Average | 5.8% | 4.8–6.8% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.4–7.2% | 4.1–7.6% |
1–30 September 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
5.2% | 4.6–5.9% | 4.4–6.1% | 4.3–6.3% | 4.0–6.7% |
15–20 September 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
6.3% | 5.7–7.0% | 5.5–7.2% | 5.3–7.4% | 5.1–7.8% |
4–6 September 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
6.9% | 6.1–7.8% | 5.9–8.1% | 5.7–8.4% | 5.3–8.8% |
1–31 August 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
7.9% | 7.1–8.8% | 6.9–9.0% | 6.8–9.2% | 6.4–9.6% |
16–21 August 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
8.8% | 7.8–10.0% | 7.5–10.3% | 7.2–10.6% | 6.8–11.2% |
3–7 August 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
9.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 July 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.0% | 8.2–9.9% | 8.0–10.2% | 7.8–10.4% | 7.4–10.9% |
20–24 July 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
10.7% | 9.6–12.0% | 9.3–12.3% | 9.1–12.7% | 8.6–13.3% |
6–10 July 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
9.0% | 7.8–10.3% | 7.5–10.7% | 7.2–11.1% | 6.7–11.8% |
1–30 June 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
10.0% | 9.2–11.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.7–11.5% | 8.3–12.0% |
27–31 May 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
10.2% | 9.1–11.4% | 8.8–11.8% | 8.5–12.1% | 8.0–12.7% |
13–24 May 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.6% | 8.7–10.5% | 8.5–10.8% | 8.3–11.0% | 7.9–11.5% |
22 April–2 May 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
7.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
26–29 April 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
10.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 March 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
29–31 March 2022 | Factum Interactive | 10.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–28 February 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
7.2% | 6.5–8.1% | 6.3–8.3% | 6.1–8.5% | 5.8–8.9% |
23–28 February 2022 | Factum Interactive | 11.5% | 10.4–12.7% | 10.1–13.0% | 9.9–13.3% | 9.4–13.9% |
1 January–2 February 2022 | Factum Interactive | 11.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 January 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 December 2021 | SKDS | 7.8% | 7.1–8.7% | 6.8–8.9% | 6.7–9.1% | 6.3–9.6% |
1–31 December 2021 | Factum Interactive | 12.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.6–13.5% | 10.4–13.8% | 9.9–14.4% |
1–30 November 2021 | Factum Interactive | 12.6% | 11.2–14.1% | 10.9–14.6% | 10.5–15.0% | 9.9–15.7% |
8–29 November 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.1% | 8.3–10.0% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.8–10.5% | 7.5–11.0% |
1–31 October 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.2% | 8.1–10.7% | 7.7–11.1% | 7.5–11.4% | 6.9–12.1% |
1–31 October 2021 | Factum Interactive | 14.1% | 13.1–15.2% | 12.8–15.5% | 12.6–15.8% | 12.1–16.3% |
1 September–1 October 2021 | Factum Interactive | 14.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–30 September 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 August 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
27–31 August 2021 | Factum Interactive | 14.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 July 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.4% | 8.6–10.3% | 8.3–10.6% | 8.1–10.8% | 7.7–11.3% |
27–31 July 2021 | Factum Interactive | 11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–30 June 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8.9% | 8.1–9.8% | 7.9–10.1% | 7.7–10.3% | 7.3–10.8% |
1–31 May 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8.7% | 7.9–9.6% | 7.7–9.9% | 7.5–10.1% | 7.1–10.5% |
26–31 May 2021 | Factum Interactive | 11.8% | 10.2–13.7% | 9.8–14.2% | 9.4–14.7% | 8.7–15.7% |
1–30 April 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.4% | 8.2–10.8% | 7.8–11.2% | 7.6–11.5% | 7.0–12.3% |
26–30 April 2021 | Factum Interactive | 12.2% | 11.1–13.5% | 10.7–13.9% | 10.5–14.2% | 9.9–14.9% |
9–19 April 2021 | Latvijas Fakti | 11.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.6–13.7% |
1–31 March 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 March 2021 | Latvijas Fakti | 10.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
26–30 March 2021 | Factum Interactive | 13.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–28 February 2021 | Latvijas Fakti | 12.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–28 February 2021 | Factum Interactive | 14.6% | 13.6–15.7% | 13.3–16.0% | 13.1–16.3% | 12.6–16.8% |
28–31 January 2021 | Factum Interactive | 14.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 December 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.3% | 8.2–10.7% | 7.9–11.1% | 7.6–11.4% | 7.1–12.1% |
1–17 December 2020 | Factum Interactive | 13.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–30 November 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
15.0% | 13.5–16.7% | 13.1–17.2% | 12.7–17.6% | 12.1–18.4% |
11–30 November 2020 | Factum Interactive | 14.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
26–30 October 2020 | Factum Interactive | 17.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
9–20 October 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
13.6% | 12.2–15.2% | 11.8–15.6% | 11.5–16.0% | 10.9–16.8% |
29 September–4 October 2020 | Factum Interactive | 17.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
11–21 September 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
13.0% | 11.6–14.5% | 11.2–14.9% | 10.9–15.3% | 10.3–16.1% |
1–31 August 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
14.0% | 12.6–15.6% | 12.3–16.0% | 11.9–16.4% | 11.3–17.2% |
1–24 August 2020 | Factum Interactive | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
7–20 August 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
13.8% | 12.4–15.3% | 12.0–15.8% | 11.7–16.2% | 11.1–17.0% |
1–31 July 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
5.7% | 4.8–6.8% | 4.5–7.1% | 4.3–7.4% | 3.9–8.0% |
8–31 July 2020 | Factum Interactive | 14.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–30 June 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
11.3% | 9.6–13.4% | 9.1–14.0% | 8.7–14.5% | 8.0–15.6% |
1–30 June 2020 | Factum Interactive | 15.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
23 May–2 June 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.8% | 8.2–11.8% | 7.8–12.4% | 7.4–12.9% | 6.7–13.9% |
18–31 May 2020 | Factum Interactive | 13.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
7–26 April 2020 | Factum Interactive | 13.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 March 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
10.5% | 9.3–11.9% | 9.0–12.3% | 8.7–12.7% | 8.1–13.4% |
4–28 March 2020 | Factum Interactive | 12.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
24–28 February 2020 | Factum Interactive | 12.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
7–18 February 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
10.7% | 9.4–12.1% | 9.1–12.5% | 8.8–12.9% | 8.2–13.6% |
28 January–1 February 2020 | Factum Interactive | 11.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 January 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
18–31 December 2019 | Factum Interactive | 9.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
30 November–12 December 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8.4% | 7.3–9.8% | 7.0–10.2% | 6.7–10.5% | 6.2–11.2% |
21–24 November 2019 | Factum Interactive | 9.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
2–12 November 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
10.2% | 9.0–11.6% | 8.6–12.0% | 8.4–12.4% | 7.8–13.1% |
15–22 October 2019 | Factum Interactive | 9.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
5–16 October 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.2% | 8.1–10.6% | 7.8–11.0% | 7.5–11.3% | 7.0–12.0% |
27–30 September 2019 | Factum Interactive | 10.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
6–18 September 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.9% | 8.7–11.3% | 8.4–11.7% | 8.1–12.0% | 7.6–12.7% |
1–31 August 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.8% | 8.6–11.3% | 8.3–11.7% | 8.0–12.1% | 7.5–12.8% |
27–30 August 2019 | Factum Interactive | 10.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 July 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.8% | 8.6–11.3% | 8.3–11.7% | 8.0–12.1% | 7.5–12.8% |
22–29 July 2019 | Factum Interactive | 9.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
26–30 June 2019 | Factum Interactive | 11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
7–17 June 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
10.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 May 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–28 May 2019 | Factum Interactive | 9.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–21 May 2019 | Berg Research jauns.lv |
10.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–30 April 2019 | Factum Interactive | 10.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–27 April 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
12–22 April 2019 | Latvijas Fakti | 11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
10–14 April 2019 | Factum Interactive | 11.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
26 March–5 April 2019 | Factum Interactive | 11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 March 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 March 2019 | Factum Interactive | 11.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
3–18 March 2019 | Latvijas Fakti | 9.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–28 February 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
11–23 January 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–12 December 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
3–15 November 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
13–23 October 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
11.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Attīstībai/Par!.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
3.5–4.5% | 4% | 100% | |
4.5–5.5% | 35% | 96% | |
5.5–6.5% | 44% | 61% | Median |
6.5–7.5% | 16% | 17% | |
7.5–8.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
8.5–9.5% | 0% | 0% | |
9.5–10.5% | 0% | 0% | |
10.5–11.5% | 0% | 0% | |
11.5–12.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Seats
Last result: 13 seats (General Election of 6 October 2018)
Confidence Intervals
Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N/A | Poll Average | 7 | 0–8 | 0–8 | 0–9 | 0–10 |
1–30 September 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
0 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
15–20 September 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
7 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
4–6 September 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
9 | 9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
1–31 August 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
7 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–13 |
16–21 August 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
9 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 7–13 |
3–7 August 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
|||||
1–31 July 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9 | 9–10 | 9–11 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
20–24 July 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
14 | 14 | 12–16 | 10–16 | 10–16 |
6–10 July 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
12 | 10–14 | 7–15 | 7–15 | 7–15 |
1–30 June 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
10 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 9–15 |
27–31 May 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
9 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 9–15 |
13–24 May 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
11 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 9–15 |
22 April–2 May 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
|||||
26–29 April 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
|||||
1–31 March 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
|||||
29–31 March 2022 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–28 February 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
23–28 February 2022 | Factum Interactive | 15 | 14–15 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 11–17 |
1 January–2 February 2022 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–31 January 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
|||||
1–31 December 2021 | SKDS | 9 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
1–31 December 2021 | Factum Interactive | 15 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
1–30 November 2021 | Factum Interactive | 15 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 11–20 |
8–29 November 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
10 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–14 | 7–14 |
1–31 October 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
11 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 8–16 |
1–31 October 2021 | Factum Interactive | 16 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 15–20 |
1 September–1 October 2021 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–30 September 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
|||||
1–31 August 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
|||||
27–31 August 2021 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–31 July 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 7–13 | 7–14 |
27–31 July 2021 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–30 June 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–13 | 7–14 |
1–31 May 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
26–31 May 2021 | Factum Interactive | 14 | 11–16 | 11–17 | 10–17 | 9–17 |
1–30 April 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
10 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 7–13 | 7–14 |
26–30 April 2021 | Factum Interactive | 14 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 11–16 | 10–17 |
9–19 April 2021 | Latvijas Fakti | 12 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 10–15 | 9–16 |
1–31 March 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
|||||
1–31 March 2021 | Latvijas Fakti | |||||
26–30 March 2021 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–28 February 2021 | Latvijas Fakti | |||||
1–28 February 2021 | Factum Interactive | 17 | 17 | 17–18 | 16–20 | 15–20 |
28–31 January 2021 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–31 December 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
10 | 8–11 | 8–13 | 7–14 | 7–14 |
1–17 December 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–30 November 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
16 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 14–20 |
11–30 November 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
26–30 October 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
9–20 October 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
16 | 13–17 | 12–17 | 11–17 | 10–17 |
29 September–4 October 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
11–21 September 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
15 | 13–16 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 11–19 |
1–31 August 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
15 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 |
1–24 August 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
7–20 August 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
15 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 |
1–31 July 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
14 | 13–16 | 0–16 | 0–18 | 0–20 |
8–31 July 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–30 June 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
14 | 9–16 | 9–16 | 9–16 | 8–17 |
1–30 June 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
23 May–2 June 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
10 | 8–14 | 8–14 | 7–15 | 7–16 |
18–31 May 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
7–26 April 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–31 March 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
12 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 8–16 |
4–28 March 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
24–28 February 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
7–18 February 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
12 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 9–15 | 9–15 |
28 January–1 February 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–31 January 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
|||||
18–31 December 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
30 November–12 December 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 7–11 |
21–24 November 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
2–12 November 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
11 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 9–15 | 8–15 |
15–22 October 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
5–16 October 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
10 | 9–14 | 8–14 | 8–14 | 7–14 |
27–30 September 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
6–18 September 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
10 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 | 8–14 |
1–31 August 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
14 | 13–14 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 9–14 |
27–30 August 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–31 July 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
11 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 9–15 | 8–15 |
22–29 July 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
26–30 June 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
7–17 June 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
|||||
1–31 May 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
|||||
1–28 May 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–21 May 2019 | Berg Research jauns.lv |
|||||
1–30 April 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–27 April 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
|||||
12–22 April 2019 | Latvijas Fakti | |||||
10–14 April 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
26 March–5 April 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–31 March 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
|||||
1–31 March 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
3–18 March 2019 | Latvijas Fakti | |||||
1–28 February 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
|||||
11–23 January 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
|||||
1–12 December 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
|||||
3–15 November 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
|||||
13–23 October 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Attīstībai/Par!.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 30% | 100% | |
1 | 0% | 70% | |
2 | 0% | 70% | |
3 | 0% | 70% | |
4 | 0% | 70% | |
5 | 0% | 70% | |
6 | 2% | 70% | |
7 | 50% | 68% | Median |
8 | 14% | 18% | |
9 | 3% | 4% | |
10 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
11 | 0% | 0% | |
12 | 0% | 0% | |
13 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |