Jaunā konservatīvā partija
Voting Intentions
Last result: 13.6% (General Election of 6 October 2018)
Confidence Intervals
Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N/A | Poll Average | 4.0% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.8–5.3% | 2.7–5.4% | 2.4–5.8% |
1–30 September 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
3.3% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.6–4.2% | 2.3–4.5% |
15–20 September 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
4.6% | 4.1–5.3% | 3.9–5.4% | 3.8–5.6% | 3.6–5.9% |
4–6 September 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
4.7% | 4.0–5.5% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.4–6.3% |
1–31 August 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
4.7% | 4.1–5.4% | 4.0–5.6% | 3.8–5.8% | 3.6–6.1% |
16–21 August 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
5.1% | 4.4–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 4.0–6.6% | 3.6–7.1% |
3–7 August 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
5.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 July 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
4.0% | 3.5–4.7% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.4% |
20–24 July 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
5.7% | 4.9–6.7% | 4.7–7.0% | 4.5–7.2% | 4.2–7.7% |
6–10 July 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
6.2% | 5.2–7.4% | 5.0–7.7% | 4.7–8.0% | 4.3–8.6% |
1–30 June 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
6.8% | 6.1–7.6% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.7–8.1% | 5.4–8.5% |
27–31 May 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
6.9% | 6.0–7.9% | 5.7–8.2% | 5.5–8.5% | 5.1–9.0% |
13–24 May 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
5.9% | 5.2–6.7% | 5.1–6.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.6–7.5% |
22 April–2 May 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
4.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
26–29 April 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
9.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 March 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
5.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
29–31 March 2022 | Factum Interactive | 6.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–28 February 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
5.3% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% | 4.1–6.8% |
23–28 February 2022 | Factum Interactive | 6.2% | 5.4–7.1% | 5.2–7.4% | 5.0–7.6% | 4.7–8.1% |
1 January–2 February 2022 | Factum Interactive | 6.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 January 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
4.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 December 2021 | SKDS | 6.0% | 5.3–6.8% | 5.2–7.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.7–7.6% |
1–31 December 2021 | Factum Interactive | 6.1% | 5.3–7.0% | 5.1–7.3% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.6–7.9% |
1–30 November 2021 | Factum Interactive | 5.5% | 4.7–6.7% | 4.4–7.0% | 4.2–7.3% | 3.8–7.9% |
8–29 November 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
5.2% | 4.6–5.9% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.3–6.3% | 4.0–6.7% |
1–31 October 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
4.9% | 4.1–6.0% | 3.8–6.3% | 3.6–6.6% | 3.3–7.2% |
1–31 October 2021 | Factum Interactive | 5.1% | 4.5–5.8% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.2–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% |
1 September–1 October 2021 | Factum Interactive | 6.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–30 September 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
4.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 August 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
5.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
27–31 August 2021 | Factum Interactive | 6.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 July 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
6.7% | 6.0–7.5% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.7–8.0% | 5.3–8.4% |
27–31 July 2021 | Factum Interactive | 5.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–30 June 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
6.0% | 5.3–6.8% | 5.2–7.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.7–7.6% |
1–31 May 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8.4% | 7.6–9.3% | 7.4–9.5% | 7.2–9.7% | 6.8–10.2% |
26–31 May 2021 | Factum Interactive | 8.3% | 7.0–10.0% | 6.6–10.5% | 6.3–10.9% | 5.8–11.7% |
1–30 April 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
6.5% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.2–8.1% | 5.0–8.4% | 4.6–9.0% |
26–30 April 2021 | Factum Interactive | 7.4% | 6.4–8.4% | 6.2–8.7% | 6.0–9.0% | 5.6–9.5% |
9–19 April 2021 | Latvijas Fakti | 7.6% | 6.6–8.8% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.1–9.4% | 5.7–10.0% |
1–31 March 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
7.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 March 2021 | Latvijas Fakti | 8.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
26–30 March 2021 | Factum Interactive | 8.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–28 February 2021 | Latvijas Fakti | 8.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–28 February 2021 | Factum Interactive | 8.0% | 7.2–8.8% | 7.0–9.1% | 6.8–9.3% | 6.5–9.7% |
28–31 January 2021 | Factum Interactive | 7.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 December 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
10.3% | 9.1–11.8% | 8.8–12.1% | 8.5–12.5% | 8.0–13.2% |
1–17 December 2020 | Factum Interactive | 8.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–30 November 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8.5% | 7.4–9.9% | 7.1–10.3% | 6.8–10.6% | 6.3–11.3% |
11–30 November 2020 | Factum Interactive | 9.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
26–30 October 2020 | Factum Interactive | 8.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
9–20 October 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
11.2% | 10.0–12.7% | 9.6–13.1% | 9.3–13.5% | 8.7–14.2% |
29 September–4 October 2020 | Factum Interactive | 8.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
11–21 September 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
10.4% | 9.1–11.8% | 8.8–12.2% | 8.5–12.5% | 8.0–13.3% |
1–31 August 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8.2% | 7.2–9.5% | 6.9–9.9% | 6.6–10.2% | 6.2–10.8% |
1–24 August 2020 | Factum Interactive | 9.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
7–20 August 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8.1% | 7.0–9.4% | 6.8–9.8% | 6.5–10.1% | 6.0–10.7% |
1–31 July 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
3.8% | 3.1–4.8% | 2.9–5.1% | 2.8–5.3% | 2.5–5.8% |
8–31 July 2020 | Factum Interactive | 8.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–30 June 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8.0% | 6.6–9.9% | 6.2–10.4% | 5.9–10.9% | 5.3–11.9% |
1–30 June 2020 | Factum Interactive | 9.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
23 May–2 June 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
7.2% | 5.9–9.0% | 5.5–9.5% | 5.2–10.0% | 4.6–10.9% |
18–31 May 2020 | Factum Interactive | 9.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
7–26 April 2020 | Factum Interactive | 10.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 March 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.0% | 7.8–10.3% | 7.5–10.7% | 7.3–11.0% | 6.8–11.7% |
4–28 March 2020 | Factum Interactive | 12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
24–28 February 2020 | Factum Interactive | 10.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
7–18 February 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8.2% | 7.2–9.6% | 6.9–9.9% | 6.6–10.3% | 6.1–10.9% |
28 January–1 February 2020 | Factum Interactive | 11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 January 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
10.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
18–31 December 2019 | Factum Interactive | 12.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
30 November–12 December 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
10.8% | 9.5–12.3% | 9.2–12.7% | 8.9–13.1% | 8.3–13.9% |
21–24 November 2019 | Factum Interactive | 13.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
2–12 November 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9.8% | 8.7–11.2% | 8.3–11.6% | 8.0–12.0% | 7.5–12.7% |
15–22 October 2019 | Factum Interactive | 14.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
5–16 October 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
11.8% | 10.5–13.2% | 10.1–13.7% | 9.8–14.0% | 9.3–14.8% |
27–30 September 2019 | Factum Interactive | 14.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
6–18 September 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
11.7% | 10.4–13.2% | 10.0–13.6% | 9.7–13.9% | 9.1–14.7% |
1–31 August 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
10.0% | 8.7–11.4% | 8.4–11.8% | 8.1–12.2% | 7.6–12.9% |
27–30 August 2019 | Factum Interactive | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 July 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8.6% | 7.5–10.0% | 7.2–10.4% | 6.9–10.8% | 6.4–11.4% |
22–29 July 2019 | Factum Interactive | 14.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
26–30 June 2019 | Factum Interactive | 10.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
7–17 June 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
7.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 May 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
12.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–28 May 2019 | Factum Interactive | 9.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–21 May 2019 | Berg Research jauns.lv |
5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–30 April 2019 | Factum Interactive | 15.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–27 April 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
13.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
12–22 April 2019 | Latvijas Fakti | 9.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
10–14 April 2019 | Factum Interactive | 8.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
26 March–5 April 2019 | Factum Interactive | 9.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 March 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
12.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–31 March 2019 | Factum Interactive | 13.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
3–18 March 2019 | Latvijas Fakti | 4.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–28 February 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
15.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
11–23 January 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–12 December 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
3–15 November 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
15.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
13–23 October 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
13.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Jaunā konservatīvā partija.
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
1.5–2.5% | 1.1% | 100% | |
2.5–3.5% | 34% | 98.9% | |
3.5–4.5% | 35% | 65% | Median |
4.5–5.5% | 28% | 29% | |
5.5–6.5% | 2% | 2% | |
6.5–7.5% | 0% | 0% | |
7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% | |
8.5–9.5% | 0% | 0% | |
9.5–10.5% | 0% | 0% | |
10.5–11.5% | 0% | 0% | |
11.5–12.5% | 0% | 0% | |
12.5–13.5% | 0% | 0% | |
13.5–14.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Seats
Last result: 16 seats (General Election of 6 October 2018)
Confidence Intervals
Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N/A | Poll Average | 0 | 0 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
1–30 September 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
15–20 September 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
0 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
4–6 September 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
0 | 0 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
1–31 August 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
16–21 August 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
3–7 August 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
|||||
1–31 July 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–6 |
20–24 July 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
7 | 0–7 | 0–8 | 0–9 | 0–9 |
6–10 July 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
7 | 7–9 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–9 |
1–30 June 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
7 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
27–31 May 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
7 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 0–13 |
13–24 May 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
7 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 0–9 | 0–9 |
22 April–2 May 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
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26–29 April 2022 | Factum Interactive ReTV |
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1–31 March 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
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29–31 March 2022 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–28 February 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
23–28 February 2022 | Factum Interactive | 7 | 0–8 | 0–9 | 0–10 | 0–10 |
1 January–2 February 2022 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–31 January 2022 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
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1–31 December 2021 | SKDS | 7 | 7–8 | 6–9 | 0–9 | 0–9 |
1–31 December 2021 | Factum Interactive | 7 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–9 | 0–9 |
1–30 November 2021 | Factum Interactive | 7 | 0–8 | 0–8 | 0–9 | 0–9 |
8–29 November 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
6 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
1–31 October 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
0 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–9 |
1–31 October 2021 | Factum Interactive | 7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
1 September–1 October 2021 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–30 September 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
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1–31 August 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
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27–31 August 2021 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–31 July 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
7 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
27–31 July 2021 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–30 June 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 0–9 | 0–9 |
1–31 May 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
26–31 May 2021 | Factum Interactive | 9 | 7–12 | 7–12 | 7–13 | 7–13 |
1–30 April 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 0–10 |
26–30 April 2021 | Factum Interactive | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–13 |
9–19 April 2021 | Latvijas Fakti | 9 | 7–12 | 7–12 | 7–12 | 7–12 |
1–31 March 2021 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
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1–31 March 2021 | Latvijas Fakti | |||||
26–30 March 2021 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–28 February 2021 | Latvijas Fakti | |||||
1–28 February 2021 | Factum Interactive | 9 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
28–31 January 2021 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–31 December 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
12 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
1–17 December 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–30 November 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 | 6–13 |
11–30 November 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
26–30 October 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
9–20 October 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
12 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 9–15 |
29 September–4 October 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
11–21 September 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
12 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 |
1–31 August 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–13 |
1–24 August 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
7–20 August 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9 | 7–9 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
1–31 July 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–11 |
8–31 July 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–30 June 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9 | 7–12 | 7–13 | 6–13 | 6–13 |
1–30 June 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
23 May–2 June 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
8 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 6–12 | 0–13 |
18–31 May 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
7–26 April 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–31 March 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
10 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 7–13 |
4–28 March 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
24–28 February 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
7–18 February 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 | 7–13 |
28 January–1 February 2020 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–31 January 2020 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
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18–31 December 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
30 November–12 December 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
13 | 13 | 13 | 12–13 | 9–13 |
21–24 November 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
2–12 November 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
11 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
15–22 October 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
5–16 October 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
13 | 12–13 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 10–17 |
27–30 September 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
6–18 September 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
13 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 11–15 | 10–15 |
1–31 August 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9 | 9 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 |
27–30 August 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–31 July 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
9 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 7–13 | 7–13 |
22–29 July 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
26–30 June 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
7–17 June 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
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1–31 May 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
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1–28 May 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–21 May 2019 | Berg Research jauns.lv |
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1–30 April 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–27 April 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
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12–22 April 2019 | Latvijas Fakti | |||||
10–14 April 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
26 March–5 April 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
1–31 March 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
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1–31 March 2019 | Factum Interactive | |||||
3–18 March 2019 | Latvijas Fakti | |||||
1–28 February 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
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11–23 January 2019 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
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1–12 December 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
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3–15 November 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
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13–23 October 2018 | SKDS Latvijas Televīzija |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Jaunā konservatīvā partija.
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 91% | 100% | Median |
1 | 0% | 9% | |
2 | 0% | 9% | |
3 | 0% | 9% | |
4 | 0% | 9% | |
5 | 0% | 9% | |
6 | 3% | 9% | |
7 | 6% | 6% | |
8 | 0% | 0% | |
9 | 0% | 0% | |
10 | 0% | 0% | |
11 | 0% | 0% | |
12 | 0% | 0% | |
13 | 0% | 0% | |
14 | 0% | 0% | |
15 | 0% | 0% | |
16 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |