Aliança Democrática (EPP)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 31.6% | 27.4–34.2% | 26.5–34.9% | 25.8–35.4% | 24.5–36.5% |
| 17–23 October 2024 | CESOP–UCP Antena 1, Público and RTP |
33.0% | 31.1–34.9% | 30.6–35.5% | 30.2–35.9% | 29.3–36.9% |
| 4–10 October 2024 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
28.3% | 26.0–30.7% | 25.4–31.4% | 24.8–32.0% | 23.8–33.2% |
| 30 September–5 October 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
32.0% | 30.0–34.2% | 29.4–34.8% | 28.9–35.4% | 27.9–36.4% |
| 29 August–4 September 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
29.5% | 27.2–31.9% | 26.5–32.6% | 26.0–33.2% | 24.9–34.4% |
| 19–26 July 2024 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
28.7% | 26.5–31.2% | 25.8–31.9% | 25.3–32.5% | 24.2–33.7% |
| 7–13 July 2024 | CESOP–UCP RTP |
31.0% | 29.2–33.0% | 28.6–33.6% | 28.2–34.0% | 27.3–35.0% |
| 3–8 July 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
27.6% | 25.6–29.7% | 25.1–30.3% | 24.6–30.8% | 23.7–31.8% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Aliança Democrática (EPP).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 3% | 98% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 6% | 95% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 8% | 89% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 8% | 81% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 10% | 73% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 13% | 63% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 16% | 50% | Median |
| 32.5–33.5% | 16% | 34% | |
| 33.5–34.5% | 11% | 18% | |
| 34.5–35.5% | 5% | 7% | |
| 35.5–36.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 36.5–37.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 37.5–38.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38.5–39.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| 17–23 October 2024 | CESOP–UCP Antena 1, Público and RTP |
8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| 4–10 October 2024 | Intercampus Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| 30 September–5 October 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias |
8 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| 29 August–4 September 2024 | Intercampus CMTV |
7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 19–26 July 2024 | Intercampus CMTV, Correio da Manhã and Negócios |
7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| 7–13 July 2024 | CESOP–UCP RTP |
8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–9 |
| 3–8 July 2024 | Aximage Diário de Notícias, Jornal de Notícias and TSF Rádio Notícias |
7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–8 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Aliança Democrática (EPP).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 12% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 32% | 88% | |
| 8 | 50% | 56% | Median |
| 9 | 7% | 7% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |