DéFI
Voting Intentions
Last result: 1.8% (General Election of 25 May 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 1.6% | 1.4–1.6% | 1.4–1.6% | 1.4–1.6% | 1.3–1.7% |
| 6–14 May 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.2% | 1.7–1.9% | 1.7–1.9% | 1.7–1.9% | 1.6–1.9% |
| 25 March–14 April 2019 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
1.8% | 1.4–1.6% | 1.4–1.6% | 1.3–1.6% | 1.2–1.6% |
| 5–11 February 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.2% | 1.8–2.0% | 1.7–2.0% | 1.7–2.0% | 1.6–2.0% |
| 13–17 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Nieuwsblad |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19 November–8 December 2018 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
1.8% | 1.4–1.5% | 1.4–1.6% | 1.3–1.6% | 1.2–1.6% |
| 27 November–3 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2.4% | 1.9–2.1% | 1.8–2.1% | 1.8–2.1% | 1.7–2.1% |
| 20–27 September 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.3% | 2.7–2.9% | 2.6–2.9% | 2.6–2.9% | 2.5–2.9% |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3.0% | 2.4–2.6% | 2.3–2.6% | 2.3–2.6% | 2.2–2.6% |
| 26 February–17 March 2018 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
2.7% | 2.2–2.4% | 2.1–2.4% | 2.1–2.4% | 2.0–2.4% |
| 27 February–6 March 2018 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
3.0% | 2.4–2.6% | 2.4–2.6% | 2.3–2.6% | 2.2–2.7% |
| 27 November–4 December 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
3.2% | 2.6–2.8% | 2.5–2.8% | 2.5–2.8% | 2.4–2.8% |
| 11 September–5 October 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
2.8% | 2.3–2.5% | 2.3–2.5% | 2.2–2.5% | 2.1–2.5% |
| 25 August–3 September 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
3.3% | 2.7–2.9% | 2.6–2.9% | 2.6–2.9% | 2.5–2.9% |
| 23–27 June 2017 | Dedicated MR |
2.4% | 1.8–2.0% | 1.8–2.0% | 1.7–2.0% | 1.6–2.0% |
| 27 March–11 April 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–20 March 2017 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
1.2% | 0.9–1.0% | 0.9–1.0% | 0.9–1.0% | 0.8–1.0% |
| 16–17 February 2017 | iVox Sudpresse |
4.5% | 3.8–5.4% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.1–6.5% |
| 10–17 January 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
1.5% | 1.2–1.3% | 1.1–1.3% | 1.1–1.3% | 1.0–1.3% |
| 24–28 November 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
1.1% | 0.9–1.0% | 0.9–1.0% | 0.9–1.0% | 0.8–1.1% |
| 14 September–3 October 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–25 September 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
1.6% | 1.2–1.3% | 1.2–1.3% | 1.1–1.3% | 1.1–1.3% |
| 2–6 September 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
2.0% | 1.5–1.7% | 1.5–1.7% | 1.5–1.7% | 1.4–1.8% |
| 6–12 May 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
1.8% | 1.4–1.5% | 1.3–1.6% | 1.3–1.6% | 1.2–1.6% |
| 31 March–4 April 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
1.6% | 1.2–1.3% | 1.2–1.3% | 1.1–1.3% | 1.1–1.3% |
| 22 February–9 March 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 15–20 January 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
1.8% | 1.4–1.5% | 1.3–1.5% | 1.3–1.5% | 1.2–1.5% |
| 3–7 December 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
1.1% | 0.8–1.1% | 0.8–1.2% | 0.7–1.2% | 0.6–1.2% |
| 28 September–4 October 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
0.6% | 0.4–0.6% | 0.4–0.6% | 0.3–0.6% | 0.3–0.7% |
| 22 September–2 October 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–14 September 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
0.9% | 0.6–1.0% | 0.6–1.0% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.0% |
| 12–18 May 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
1.0% | 0.7–1.1% | 0.7–1.1% | 0.6–1.1% | 0.5–1.1% |
| 5 March–9 May 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20 April–3 May 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–24 April 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
0.8% | 0.5–0.8% | 0.5–0.8% | 0.5–0.8% | 0.4–0.8% |
| 5–9 March 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
1.8% | 1.4–1.6% | 1.4–1.6% | 1.3–1.6% | 1.2–1.6% |
| 23–28 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
0.7% | 0.6–0.8% | 0.5–0.8% | 0.5–0.8% | 0.4–0.8% |
| 5–11 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
0.7% | 0.5–0.8% | 0.5–0.8% | 0.4–0.8% | 0.4–0.8% |
| 4–5 December 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27 November–1 December 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
0.9% | 0.7–1.0% | 0.6–1.0% | 0.6–1.0% | 0.5–1.0% |
| 9–10 October 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22 September–3 October 2014 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–9 September 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
0.6% | 0.4–0.7% | 0.4–0.7% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.3–0.7% |
| 1–31 July 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for DéFI.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 0.5–1.5% | 38% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 100% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 2.5–3.5% | 49% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 2 seats (General Election of 25 May 2014)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 6–14 May 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| 25 March–14 April 2019 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 5–11 February 2019 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–5 |
| 13–17 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Nieuwsblad |
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| 19 November–8 December 2018 | TNS De Standaard, La Libre Belgique, RTBf and VRT |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 27 November–3 December 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 20–27 September 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
6 | 5–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 2–7 |
| 29 May–6 June 2018 | Ipsos Het Laatste Nieuws, Le Soir, RTL TVi and VTM |
5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 2–6 | 2–7 |
| 26 February–17 March 2018 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
2 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 27 February–6 March 2018 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
5 | 3–6 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 2–6 |
| 27 November–4 December 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
6 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 2–7 |
| 11 September–5 October 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT–RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
3 | 2–5 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 2–6 |
| 25 August–3 September 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
6 | 4–7 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–8 |
| 23–27 June 2017 | Dedicated MR |
3 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–6 |
| 27 March–11 April 2017 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
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| 16–20 March 2017 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 16–17 February 2017 | iVox Sudpresse |
0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–3 |
| 10–17 January 2017 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 24–28 November 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 14 September–3 October 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
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| 19–25 September 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 2–6 September 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| 6–12 May 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| 31 March–4 April 2016 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 22 February–9 March 2016 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
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| 15–20 January 2016 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
2 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 3–7 December 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 September–4 October 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 September–2 October 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
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| 9–14 September 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12–18 May 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 March–9 May 2015 | Dedicated La Libre Belgique–RTBf |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 20 April–3 May 2015 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
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| 20–24 April 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5–9 March 2015 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 23–28 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5–11 January 2015 | Ipsos RTL TVi–Le Soir–VTM–Het Laatste Nieuws |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4–5 December 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
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| 27 November–1 December 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9–10 October 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
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| 22 September–3 October 2014 | TNS De Standaard–VRT |
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| 5–9 September 2014 | Dedicated RTBf–La Libre Belgique |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1–31 July 2014 | AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for DéFI.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 100% | |
| 2 | 48% | 58% | Last Result, Median |
| 3 | 10% | 11% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |