Partidul Național Liberal

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 20.0% (General Election of 21 December 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 31.1% 28.2–33.6% 27.5–34.2% 26.9–34.8% 25.8–35.9%
2–3 December 2020 IRES 32.0% 30.2–33.8% 29.7–34.4% 29.2–34.8% 28.4–35.7%
28–29 November 2020 Sociopol 29.0% 27.3–30.9% 26.8–31.4% 26.4–31.9% 25.5–32.8%
22–28 November 2020 IRSOP 33.0% 31.1–34.9% 30.6–35.5% 30.1–35.9% 29.2–36.9%
6–27 November 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 28.5% 26.7–30.4% 26.2–30.9% 25.8–31.4% 25.0–32.3%
20–25 November 2020 Verifield 31.3% 29.5–33.1% 29.0–33.6% 28.6–34.1% 27.8–35.0%
11–18 November 2020 ADS
PER		 31.1% 29.5–32.8% 29.0–33.3% 28.6–33.7% 27.8–34.5%
1–10 November 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 32.0% 30.2–33.8% 29.7–34.4% 29.2–34.8% 28.4–35.7%
25–30 October 2020 BCS
PMP		 32.2% 30.7–33.8% 30.2–34.2% 29.8–34.6% 29.1–35.4%
7–28 October 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 32.5% 30.6–34.4% 30.1–35.0% 29.6–35.4% 28.8–36.4%
8–11 October 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 32.0% 29.9–34.2% 29.4–34.8% 28.9–35.3% 27.9–36.4%
7–23 September 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 34.7% 32.8–36.6% 32.2–37.2% 31.8–37.6% 30.9–38.6%
6–26 August 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 33.6% 31.7–35.5% 31.2–36.1% 30.7–36.5% 29.8–37.5%
29 July–5 August 2020 CURS 31.0% 29.2–32.8% 28.8–33.3% 28.3–33.8% 27.5–34.7%
10–29 July 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 33.4% 31.5–35.3% 31.0–35.9% 30.5–36.3% 29.6–37.3%
19–30 June 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 32.0% 30.2–33.9% 29.7–34.4% 29.3–34.8% 28.5–35.7%
5–27 June 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 29.7% 27.9–31.6% 27.4–32.1% 27.0–32.6% 26.1–33.5%
8–27 May 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 32.8% 30.9–34.7% 30.4–35.3% 29.9–35.7% 29.1–36.7%
15–26 May 2020 Avangarde 35.0% 33.1–37.0% 32.6–37.5% 32.1–38.0% 31.2–39.0%
15–20 May 2020 INSCOP 31.7% 30.0–33.5% 29.5–34.0% 29.1–34.5% 28.2–35.4%
1–7 May 2020 BCS 29.8% 28.4–31.4% 28.0–31.8% 27.6–32.2% 26.9–32.9%
6–24 April 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 33.0% 31.1–34.9% 30.6–35.5% 30.1–35.9% 29.3–36.9%
11–15 April 2020 BCS 32.3% 30.5–34.3% 30.0–34.8% 29.5–35.3% 28.7–36.2%
6–12 April 2020 Avangarde
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 38.1% 36.1–40.2% 35.5–40.8% 35.0–41.3% 34.1–42.4%
5–26 March 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 36.7% 34.8–38.7% 34.3–39.3% 33.8–39.8% 32.9–40.7%
11–28 February 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 40.7% 38.7–42.7% 38.2–43.3% 37.7–43.8% 36.8–44.7%
13–31 January 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 47.5% 45.5–49.5% 44.9–50.1% 44.4–50.6% 43.5–51.5%
20–30 January 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 38.2% 36.4–40.0% 35.9–40.5% 35.5–40.9% 34.6–41.8%
13–18 December 2019 Sociopol 47.0% 45.0–49.0% 44.4–49.6% 43.9–50.1% 43.0–51.1%
4–18 December 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 44.5% 42.5–46.5% 42.0–47.1% 41.5–47.6% 40.5–48.6%
12–17 December 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 35.0% 33.1–36.9% 32.6–37.4% 32.1–37.9% 31.3–38.8%
11–27 November 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 39.0% 37.0–41.0% 36.5–41.5% 36.0–42.0% 35.1–43.0%
25 October–3 November 2019 USR 38.2% 36.4–40.0% 35.9–40.5% 35.5–41.0% 34.7–41.8%
8–28 October 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 29.6% 27.8–31.5% 27.3–32.0% 26.9–32.5% 26.0–33.4%
15–23 October 2019 USR 32.9% 31.2–34.7% 30.7–35.2% 30.3–35.6% 29.5–36.4%
12–19 October 2019 BCS 32.2% 30.5–34.1% 30.0–34.6% 29.6–35.0% 28.7–35.9%
5–28 September 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 29.2% 27.4–31.1% 26.9–31.6% 26.5–32.1% 25.6–33.0%
3–24 September 2019 USR 32.9% 31.4–34.5% 31.0–35.0% 30.6–35.4% 29.9–36.1%
16–20 September 2019 Socio-Data 28.0% 26.3–29.9% 25.8–30.4% 25.4–30.8% 24.6–31.7%
9–13 September 2019 Socio-Data 32.0% 30.2–33.8% 29.7–34.4% 29.2–34.8% 28.4–35.7%
2–6 September 2019 Socio-Data 31.0% 29.2–32.9% 28.7–33.4% 28.3–33.9% 27.5–34.8%
19–31 August 2019 Sociopol 35.0% 33.1–36.9% 32.5–37.5% 32.1–38.0% 31.2–38.9%
26–30 August 2019 Verifield 28.0% 26.2–29.9% 25.7–30.4% 25.3–30.9% 24.5–31.8%
26–30 August 2019 Socio-Data 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.7% 22.6–29.6%
5–28 August 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 28.4% 26.6–30.3% 26.1–30.8% 25.7–31.3% 24.9–32.2%
19 July–5 August 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 31.0% 29.5–32.5% 29.1–33.0% 28.8–33.3% 28.1–34.0%
15 July–2 August 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 25.5% 23.8–27.4% 23.4–27.9% 22.9–28.3% 22.1–29.2%
7–23 July 2019 BCS 31.5% 29.7–33.3% 29.2–33.8% 28.8–34.2% 28.0–35.1%
28 June–8 July 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 29.0% 27.2–30.8% 26.7–31.3% 26.3–31.8% 25.5–32.6%
7–26 June 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 27.5% 25.8–29.4% 25.3–29.9% 24.9–30.4% 24.0–31.3%
2–20 May 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 29.3% 27.5–31.2% 27.0–31.7% 26.6–32.2% 25.7–33.1%
1–21 February 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 23.6% 21.9–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.3% 20.3–27.2%
21 January–6 February 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.1% 18.7–23.5% 17.9–24.4%
21 January–5 February 2019 INSCOP
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung		 26.7% 25.0–28.5% 24.5–29.0% 24.1–29.4% 23.3–30.3%
28 January–4 February 2019 Sociopol 20.0% 18.5–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.7–22.6% 16.9–23.5%
1–31 January 2019 PNL 27.0% 26.6–27.4% 26.5–27.5% 26.5–27.6% 26.3–27.7%
11–30 January 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 22.1% 20.4–23.8% 20.0–24.3% 19.6–24.7% 18.9–25.6%
4–20 December 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 26.1% 24.4–28.0% 23.9–28.5% 23.5–28.9% 22.7–29.8%
24 November–9 December 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 20.0% 18.5–21.6% 18.0–22.1% 17.7–22.5% 17.0–23.3%
1–30 November 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 23.3% 21.6–25.0% 21.2–25.5% 20.8–26.0% 20.0–26.8%
26 October–12 November 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 15.0% 13.7–16.5% 13.3–16.9% 13.0–17.3% 12.4–18.0%
1–31 October 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 21.9% 20.3–23.7% 19.8–24.1% 19.4–24.6% 18.7–25.4%
3–4 October 2018 Sociopol 23.0% 21.3–24.9% 20.8–25.5% 20.3–25.9% 19.5–26.9%
20 September–1 October 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 22.0% 20.5–23.7% 20.0–24.2% 19.6–24.6% 18.9–25.4%
1–30 September 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 27.1% 25.3–29.0% 24.9–29.5% 24.4–29.9% 23.6–30.8%
22–27 September 2018 Sociopol 20.0% 18.5–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
7–20 August 2018 Sociopol 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
23 June–1 July 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 24.3% 22.6–26.0% 22.2–26.5% 21.8–26.9% 21.0–27.8%
1–30 June 2018 IMAS 29.2% 27.5–30.9% 27.1–31.4% 26.7–31.8% 25.9–32.6%
22–26 June 2018 Sociopol
România TV		 20.0% 18.3–21.7% 17.9–22.2% 17.5–22.7% 16.7–23.5%
28 May–8 June 2018 Sociopol
România TV		 18.0% 16.6–19.7% 16.1–20.1% 15.8–20.6% 15.1–21.4%
27 April–8 May 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 25.0% 23.4–26.8% 22.9–27.3% 22.5–27.7% 21.7–28.6%
1–31 March 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 27.0% 25.3–28.8% 24.8–29.3% 24.4–29.7% 23.6–30.6%
27 February–5 March 2018 Sociopol
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 33.0% 31.1–34.9% 30.6–35.5% 30.1–36.0% 29.3–36.9%
1–28 February 2018 IMAS 29.4% 27.6–31.3% 27.1–31.8% 26.7–32.3% 25.8–33.2%
3–10 January 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 25.9% 24.3–27.7% 23.8–28.2% 23.4–28.7% 22.6–29.5%
24 November–7 December 2017 Avangarde 23.0% 21.0–25.1% 20.5–25.7% 20.0–26.3% 19.1–27.3%
1–30 November 2017 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 27.0% 25.3–28.8% 24.8–29.3% 24.4–29.7% 23.6–30.6%
22 September–5 October 2017 Sociopol 24.1% 22.3–26.0% 21.8–26.5% 21.3–27.0% 20.5–28.0%
1–30 September 2017 IMAS 30.9% 29.1–32.8% 28.5–33.4% 28.1–33.8% 27.3–34.8%
28 August–14 September 2017 Sociopol 27.0% 25.2–28.8% 24.7–29.3% 24.3–29.8% 23.5–30.7%
11–23 August 2017 Avangarde 25.1% 23.1–27.3% 22.5–27.9% 22.0–28.4% 21.1–29.5%
15–22 June 2017 Avangarde 30.0% 27.9–32.1% 27.3–32.7% 26.8–33.3% 25.9–34.3%
1–30 April 2017 IMAS 25.4% 23.7–27.2% 23.2–27.7% 22.8–28.2% 22.0–29.1%
6–14 March 2017 Sociopol 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 18.9–23.2% 18.5–23.6% 17.8–24.4%
1–31 January 2017 IMAS 20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.7–22.9% 18.3–23.3% 17.6–24.2%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Partidul Național Liberal.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19.5–20.5% 0% 100% Last Result
20.5–21.5% 0% 100%  
21.5–22.5% 0% 100%  
22.5–23.5% 0% 100%  
23.5–24.5% 0% 100%  
24.5–25.5% 0.3% 100%  
25.5–26.5% 1.3% 99.7%  
26.5–27.5% 4% 98%  
27.5–28.5% 8% 94%  
28.5–29.5% 11% 87%  
29.5–30.5% 15% 76%  
30.5–31.5% 19% 61% Median
31.5–32.5% 19% 42%  
32.5–33.5% 13% 23%  
33.5–34.5% 7% 10%  
34.5–35.5% 3% 3%  
35.5–36.5% 0.7% 0.9%  
36.5–37.5% 0.1% 0.2%  
37.5–38.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 69 seats (General Election of 21 December 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 107 98–121 95–126 93–130 89–135
2–3 December 2020 IRES 107 101–113 100–115 98–117 95–120
28–29 November 2020 Sociopol 102 96–110 94–112 92–114 90–118
22–28 November 2020 IRSOP 112 106–118 104–120 102–122 99–125
6–27 November 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 100 93–107 91–109 89–111 86–114
20–25 November 2020 Verifield 112 104–120 103–122 101–124 98–127
11–18 November 2020 ADS
PER		 123 114–132 111–134 109–136 105–139
1–10 November 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 102 96–108 95–110 93–111 90–114
25–30 October 2020 BCS
PMP		 107 101–114 99–116 98–117 95–120
7–28 October 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 109 102–117 100–119 98–120 95–124
8–11 October 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 105 98–113 97–115 95–118 92–122
7–23 September 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 124 116–132 114–134 112–135 108–139
6–26 August 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 117 110–124 108–126 106–127 103–131
29 July–5 August 2020 CURS 108 100–117 98–120 96–121 93–126
10–29 July 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 116 110–123 108–125 106–126 102–130
19–30 June 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 106 98–113 96–116 95–118 92–121
5–27 June 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 112 104–119 102–121 100–123 96–126
8–27 May 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 114 106–121 104–123 103–124 99–128
15–26 May 2020 Avangarde 123 117–129 116–134 112–136 110–142
15–20 May 2020 INSCOP 114 107–121 105–123 103–125 100–127
1–7 May 2020 BCS 112 105–119 103–121 101–124 98–128
6–24 April 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 117 109–124 107–126 105–128 101–131
11–15 April 2020 BCS 105 99–111 97–113 96–114 93–118
6–12 April 2020 Avangarde
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 131 123–141 120–144 118–146 115–150
5–26 March 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 128 121–136 119–139 117–141 114–145
11–28 February 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 146 137–156 134–158 132–160 128–163
13–31 January 2020 IMAS
Europa FM		 167 160–174 158–175 156–178 152–181
20–30 January 2020 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 130 124–137 122–139 120–141 116–147
13–18 December 2019 Sociopol 164 154–173 152–176 150–178 146–181
4–18 December 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 156 150–164 148–166 146–168 142–173
12–17 December 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 118 110–127 108–129 106–131 103–136
11–27 November 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 137 130–144 128–146 127–148 123–152
25 October–3 November 2019 USR 134 125–142 122–144 120–145 116–149
8–28 October 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 105 98–111 96–113 94–115 91–118
15–23 October 2019 USR 125 118–133 117–135 115–138 112–142
12–19 October 2019 BCS 123 113–133 111–136 109–138 105–143
5–28 September 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 96 90–102 88–104 86–105 84–109
3–24 September 2019 USR 126 117–135 115–138 113–140 109–143
16–20 September 2019 Socio-Data 95 88–102 86–104 84–106 81–109
9–13 September 2019 Socio-Data 108 101–116 99–118 97–120 94–124
2–6 September 2019 Socio-Data 102 95–110 93–112 92–114 88–118
19–31 August 2019 Sociopol 121 112–131 109–134 108–135 104–140
26–30 August 2019 Verifield 93 87–100 85–102 84–104 81–107
26–30 August 2019 Socio-Data 86 79–93 77–95 76–97 73–101
5–28 August 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 96 90–102 88–104 87–105 84–109
19 July–5 August 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 100 94–106 93–108 92–109 89–112
15 July–2 August 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 86 80–92 78–93 77–95 74–98
7–23 July 2019 BCS 116 107–125 104–127 102–128 98–132
28 June–8 July 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 98 91–106 89–107 87–109 84–113
7–26 June 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 93 87–99 85–101 84–102 81–105
2–20 May 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 94 88–101 86–103 85–105 82–109
1–21 February 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 78 72–84 71–86 70–87 67–90
21 January–6 February 2019 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 72 66–78 64–80 63–82 61–85
21 January–5 February 2019 INSCOP
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung		 89 83–95 81–97 79–99 77–102
28 January–4 February 2019 Sociopol 69 63–74 62–76 61–77 58–80
1–31 January 2019 PNL 89 88–91 88–91 88–91 87–92
11–30 January 2019 IMAS
Europa FM		 73 68–79 66–81 65–82 62–86
4–20 December 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 89 84–96 82–98 80–99 78–103
24 November–9 December 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 68 62–74 61–76 59–78 57–80
1–30 November 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 82 76–88 74–90 73–91 70–94
26 October–12 November 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 51 48–54 46–56 44–60 41–61
1–31 October 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 78 72–84 70–86 68–87 66–90
3–4 October 2018 Sociopol 81 74–88 72–91 70–93 67–96
20 September–1 October 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 74 67–80 66–81 64–83 61–87
1–30 September 2018 IMAS
Europa FM		 93 86–100 84–101 83–103 80–106
22–27 September 2018 Sociopol 70 64–75 63–77 61–78 59–81
7–20 August 2018 Sociopol 67 61–72 60–74 58–75 56–78
23 June–1 July 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 84 77–91 76–93 74–95 71–98
1–30 June 2018 IMAS 101 95–106 93–108 92–109 89–112
22–26 June 2018 Sociopol
România TV		 66 61–72 59–74 58–76 55–79
28 May–8 June 2018 Sociopol
România TV		 64 59–70 57–72 56–73 55–77
27 April–8 May 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 88 81–96 79–100 78–103 75–107
1–31 March 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 103 95–112 92–114 89–116 85–120
27 February–5 March 2018 Sociopol
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 114 106–123 103–126 102–128 98–132
1–28 February 2018 IMAS 105 98–113 96–114 94–116 91–120
3–10 January 2018 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 98 90–105 87–107 85–109 81–112
24 November–7 December 2017 Avangarde 82 75–89 72–91 71–93 68–97
1–30 November 2017 CURS
STIRIPESURSE.RO		 93 87–99 85–101 84–103 81–107
22 September–5 October 2017 Sociopol 84 78–91 76–93 75–95 71–98
1–30 September 2017 IMAS 116 108–123 105–125 103–127 98–130
28 August–14 September 2017 Sociopol 95 88–102 86–104 83–106 80–111
11–23 August 2017 Avangarde 93 85–101 83–103 81–106 77–110
15–22 June 2017 Avangarde 98 90–108 88–111 86–114 82–120
1–30 April 2017 IMAS 99 90–110 88–112 87–115 84–119
6–14 March 2017 Sociopol 72 67–78 65–80 64–82 61–85
1–31 January 2017 IMAS 78 71–87 69–90 68–92 65–96

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Partidul Național Liberal.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100% Last Result
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 0.3% 99.5%  
91 0.4% 99.2%  
92 0.6% 98.8%  
93 0.9% 98%  
94 1.1% 97%  
95 2% 96%  
96 2% 95%  
97 3% 93%  
98 3% 90%  
99 4% 87%  
100 4% 84%  
101 4% 80%  
102 4% 76%  
103 4% 72%  
104 5% 68%  
105 5% 63%  
106 4% 58%  
107 5% 54% Median
108 4% 49%  
109 4% 45%  
110 4% 41%  
111 4% 37%  
112 4% 33%  
113 3% 29%  
114 3% 26%  
115 3% 23%  
116 2% 20%  
117 2% 18%  
118 2% 16%  
119 2% 14%  
120 2% 12%  
121 1.3% 11%  
122 1.3% 9%  
123 0.9% 8%  
124 1.1% 7%  
125 0.7% 6%  
126 0.9% 5%  
127 0.7% 4%  
128 0.6% 4%  
129 0.5% 3%  
130 0.5% 3%  
131 0.5% 2%  
132 0.4% 2%  
133 0.3% 1.2%  
134 0.3% 0.9%  
135 0.2% 0.6%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%