Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România
Voting Intentions
Last result: 5.7% (General Election of 6 December 2020)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 4.8% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.4–6.2% | 3.2–6.4% | 2.8–7.0% |
| 26–30 December 2023 | CURS | 4.0% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.5–6.1% |
| 16–28 December 2023 | ARA Public Opinion | 5.1% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.6–7.2% |
| 20–27 November 2023 | INSCOP News.ro |
4.9% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.4% | 3.5–6.9% |
| 23 October–2 November 2023 | INSCOP News.ro |
3.8% | 3.2–4.7% | 3.0–4.9% | 2.8–5.1% | 2.5–5.6% |
| 15–22 September 2023 | INSCOP News.ro |
4.6% | 4.0–5.3% | 3.8–5.6% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–6.1% |
| 12–22 September 2023 | CURS | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.8% |
| 28–31 August 2023 | INSOMAR | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.8% |
| 8–20 July 2023 | CURS | 4.0% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 1–30 June 2023 | INSCOP | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1 May–30 June 2023 | Geeks for Democracy | 5.0% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.7% | 3.3–7.3% |
| 19–27 May 2023 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 12–17 May 2023 | CURS | 5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–20 March 2023 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.4% | 3.5–6.9% |
| 5–19 February 2023 | INSCOP | 4.6% | 4.1–5.1% | 4.0–5.3% | 3.9–5.4% | 3.7–5.7% |
| 1–13 February 2023 | INSCOP | 4.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27–30 January 2023 | Atlas Intel | 6.7% | 6.0–7.4% | 5.8–7.6% | 5.6–7.8% | 5.3–8.2% |
| 10–20 January 2023 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.4% | 3.5–6.9% |
| 1–31 December 2022 | INSCOP | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–22 November 2022 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.2–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.4% | 3.5–6.9% |
| 1–31 October 2022 | Sociopol | 4.0% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.3% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.6–6.1% |
| 8–22 September 2022 | CURS | 4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.4% | 3.4–7.0% |
| 1–31 August 2022 | Sociopol | 6.0% | 5.0–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.2–8.3% |
| 5–17 August 2022 | CURS | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–31 July 2022 | Avangarde | 5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.4–7.2% |
| 22–30 June 2022 | Avangarde | 4.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–26 May 2022 | CURS | 4.8% | 4.3–5.4% | 4.2–5.6% | 4.1–5.7% | 3.9–6.0% |
| 12–20 April 2022 | Avangarde | 5.0% | 4.1–6.0% | 3.9–6.3% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.4–7.1% |
| 28 March–11 April 2022 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.5–5.6% | 4.4–5.8% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% |
| 22–29 March 2022 | Avangarde | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–11 March 2022 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.9% |
| 2–7 March 2022 | INSCOP | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–19 February 2022 | Sociopol | 6.0% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% |
| 20–31 January 2022 | Avangarde | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–29 January 2022 | CURS | 4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.4% | 3.4–6.9% |
| 10–18 January 2022 | INSCOP | 4.3% | 3.6–5.1% | 3.4–5.3% | 3.2–5.5% | 2.9–6.0% |
| 15–23 December 2021 | Avangarde | 5.0% | 4.1–6.0% | 3.9–6.3% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.4–7.1% |
| 17–22 December 2021 | Sociopol | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 13–17 December 2021 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 16–24 November 2021 | Avangarde | 5.0% | 4.1–6.0% | 3.9–6.3% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.4–7.1% |
| 17–22 November 2021 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 25–30 October 2021 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 17–26 October 2021 | Avangarde | 5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.4–7.2% |
| 15–25 October 2021 | INSCOP | 5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 12–20 October 2021 | CURS | 5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–17 October 2021 | INSCOP | 3.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–15 October 2021 | Sociopol | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 26–29 September 2021 | Gazeta Civică | 5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.8% |
| 28 September 2021 | INSOMAR | 4.6% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.8% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.1–6.5% |
| 15–27 September 2021 | INSCOP | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14–21 September 2021 | Avangarde | 5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–10 September 2021 | CURS | 5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–5 September 2021 | CURS | 5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–24 August 2021 | Avangarde | 5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12–20 August 2021 | CURS | 5.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 15–19 August 2021 | IRES | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| 1–15 July 2021 | Sociopol | 6.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–15 July 2021 | INSOMAR Realitatea.net |
5.1% | 4.4–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.6–7.2% |
| 11–18 June 2021 | CURS | 4.0% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 1–15 June 2021 | INSOMAR Realitatea.net |
5.2% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 4.0–6.8% | 3.7–7.3% |
| 1–15 June 2021 | INSCOP | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–31 May 2021 | Sociopol | 6.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–31 May 2021 | IRES | 2.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–31 May 2021 | Avangarde | 4.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7 May 2021 | INSOMAR Realitatea.net |
8.5% | 7.5–9.8% | 7.2–10.1% | 7.0–10.4% | 6.5–11.0% |
| 14–17 April 2021 | CURS | 4.0% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.1–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.7% |
| 30 March–11 April 2021 | BCS | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.6% |
| 12–28 March 2021 | Sociopol | 4.0% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.3% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.6–6.1% |
| 1–12 March 2021 | INSCOP | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–26 February 2021 | CURS | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.8% |
| 9–11 February 2021 | INSOMAR Realitatea.net |
6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 15–17 January 2021 | Avangarde | 5.1% | 4.2–6.3% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.7–7.0% | 3.3–7.6% |
| 11–15 January 2021 | CURS | 5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| 17–21 December 2020 | CURS | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.8% |
| 10–20 December 2020 | Avangarde | 5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.4–7.2% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 32% | 92% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 42% | 61% | Median |
| 5.5–6.5% | 16% | 18% | Last Result |
| 6.5–7.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 21 seats (General Election of 6 December 2020)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 17 | 13–22 | 12–24 | 11–25 | 10–28 |
| 26–30 December 2023 | CURS | 16 | 11–18 | 11–19 | 10–21 | 9–22 |
| 16–28 December 2023 | ARA Public Opinion | 20 | 16–24 | 15–26 | 15–28 | 14–29 |
| 20–27 November 2023 | INSCOP News.ro |
17 | 14–20 | 13–20 | 13–22 | 12–23 |
| 23 October–2 November 2023 | INSCOP News.ro |
15 | 11–17 | 10–18 | 10–18 | 8–20 |
| 15–22 September 2023 | INSCOP News.ro |
16 | 14–19 | 13–20 | 13–20 | 11–22 |
| 12–22 September 2023 | CURS | 15 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 11–20 | 9–22 |
| 28–31 August 2023 | INSOMAR | 17 | 14–20 | 13–22 | 12–23 | 11–25 |
| 8–20 July 2023 | CURS | 15 | 12–17 | 11–18 | 11–19 | 9–21 |
| 1–30 June 2023 | INSCOP | |||||
| 1 May–30 June 2023 | Geeks for Democracy | 18 | 15–22 | 14–23 | 13–24 | 12–26 |
| 19–27 May 2023 | CURS | 18 | 15–21 | 14–22 | 13–23 | 12–25 |
| 12–17 May 2023 | CURS | |||||
| 10–20 March 2023 | CURS | 18 | 15–21 | 14–22 | 13–23 | 12–25 |
| 5–19 February 2023 | INSCOP | 16 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 | 13–20 |
| 1–13 February 2023 | INSCOP | |||||
| 27–30 January 2023 | Atlas Intel | 23 | 21–26 | 20–27 | 20–28 | 19–29 |
| 10–20 January 2023 | CURS | 19 | 15–22 | 14–24 | 14–25 | 12–27 |
| 1–31 December 2022 | INSCOP | |||||
| 8–22 November 2022 | CURS | 18 | 15–22 | 14–23 | 14–24 | 12–26 |
| 1–31 October 2022 | Sociopol | 14 | 12–18 | 12–19 | 11–20 | 10–21 |
| 8–22 September 2022 | CURS | 19 | 15–23 | 15–24 | 14–25 | 12–27 |
| 1–31 August 2022 | Sociopol | 21 | 17–25 | 16–26 | 16–27 | 14–29 |
| 5–17 August 2022 | CURS | |||||
| 22–31 July 2022 | Avangarde | 18 | 14–22 | 14–23 | 13–24 | 12–27 |
| 22–30 June 2022 | Avangarde | |||||
| 16–26 May 2022 | CURS | 17 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 14–22 |
| 12–20 April 2022 | Avangarde | 18 | 15–22 | 14–23 | 13–24 | 12–26 |
| 28 March–11 April 2022 | CURS | 17 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 14–21 | 14–22 |
| 22–29 March 2022 | Avangarde | |||||
| 2–11 March 2022 | CURS | 20 | 16–22 | 15–23 | 14–24 | 13–28 |
| 2–7 March 2022 | INSCOP | |||||
| 9–19 February 2022 | Sociopol | 21 | 18–25 | 17–26 | 16–26 | 15–27 |
| 20–31 January 2022 | Avangarde | |||||
| 22–29 January 2022 | CURS | 17 | 15–23 | 15–25 | 14–25 | 12–26 |
| 10–18 January 2022 | INSCOP | 14 | 12–17 | 11–19 | 11–19 | 10–21 |
| 15–23 December 2021 | Avangarde | 16 | 14–19 | 13–21 | 12–22 | 11–24 |
| 17–22 December 2021 | Sociopol | 17 | 14–21 | 13–22 | 13–23 | 11–25 |
| 13–17 December 2021 | CURS | 17 | 14–21 | 14–21 | 13–22 | 12–24 |
| 16–24 November 2021 | Avangarde | 17 | 14–20 | 13–21 | 13–22 | 12–24 |
| 17–22 November 2021 | CURS | 18 | 15–21 | 14–22 | 13–23 | 12–25 |
| 25–30 October 2021 | CURS | 17 | 14–21 | 14–22 | 13–22 | 12–24 |
| 17–26 October 2021 | Avangarde | 18 | 14–21 | 14–22 | 13–23 | 12–24 |
| 15–25 October 2021 | INSCOP | 18 | 15–21 | 14–22 | 13–22 | 12–24 |
| 12–20 October 2021 | CURS | |||||
| 12–17 October 2021 | INSCOP | |||||
| 11–15 October 2021 | Sociopol | 20 | 17–23 | 16–25 | 15–26 | 14–27 |
| 26–29 September 2021 | Gazeta Civică | 17 | 14–20 | 13–21 | 12–22 | 12–23 |
| 28 September 2021 | INSOMAR | 15 | 12–18 | 11–19 | 11–19 | 10–21 |
| 15–27 September 2021 | INSCOP | |||||
| 14–21 September 2021 | Avangarde | |||||
| 8–10 September 2021 | CURS | |||||
| 3–5 September 2021 | CURS | |||||
| 20–24 August 2021 | Avangarde | |||||
| 12–20 August 2021 | CURS | |||||
| 15–19 August 2021 | IRES | 16 | 13–19 | 13–20 | 12–21 | 11–22 |
| 1–15 July 2021 | Sociopol | |||||
| 1–15 July 2021 | INSOMAR Realitatea.net |
19 | 16–22 | 15–23 | 14–24 | 13–26 |
| 11–18 June 2021 | CURS | 14 | 11–17 | 11–18 | 10–19 | 9–20 |
| 1–15 June 2021 | INSOMAR Realitatea.net |
19 | 15–21 | 15–23 | 14–24 | 14–25 |
| 1–15 June 2021 | INSCOP | |||||
| 1–31 May 2021 | Sociopol | |||||
| 1–31 May 2021 | IRES | |||||
| 1–31 May 2021 | Avangarde | |||||
| 7 May 2021 | INSOMAR Realitatea.net |
31 | 27–35 | 26–37 | 25–39 | 23–40 |
| 14–17 April 2021 | CURS | 14 | 11–17 | 11–18 | 10–18 | 9–20 |
| 30 March–11 April 2021 | BCS | 14 | 12–16 | 11–17 | 11–18 | 10–19 |
| 12–28 March 2021 | Sociopol | 13 | 10–16 | 10–17 | 9–18 | 8–20 |
| 1–12 March 2021 | INSCOP | |||||
| 22–26 February 2021 | CURS | 14 | 11–16 | 11–17 | 10–18 | 9–20 |
| 9–11 February 2021 | INSOMAR Realitatea.net |
20 | 17–24 | 16–25 | 16–26 | 14–28 |
| 15–17 January 2021 | Avangarde | 17 | 14–21 | 13–22 | 12–23 | 11–25 |
| 11–15 January 2021 | CURS | 17 | 14–20 | 13–21 | 13–21 | 11–23 |
| 17–21 December 2020 | CURS | 13 | 11–16 | 10–17 | 9–17 | 9–19 |
| 10–20 December 2020 | Avangarde | 16 | 13–19 | 13–20 | 12–21 | 11–23 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 11 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 12 | 3% | 96% | |
| 13 | 4% | 93% | |
| 14 | 6% | 90% | |
| 15 | 9% | 84% | |
| 16 | 13% | 75% | |
| 17 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 18 | 8% | 47% | |
| 19 | 15% | 39% | |
| 20 | 6% | 24% | |
| 21 | 6% | 18% | Last Result |
| 22 | 4% | 12% | |
| 23 | 2% | 7% | |
| 24 | 2% | 5% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |