SMER–sociálna demokracia

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 18.3% (General Election of 29 February 2020)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 19.7% 17.3–23.8% 16.7–24.9% 16.3–25.7% 15.4–26.8%
25–26 September 2023 Median 19.8% 18.3–21.5% 17.8–22.0% 17.5–22.4% 16.8–23.2%
22–26 September 2023 Focus 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
20–26 September 2023 AKO 17.7% 16.2–19.3% 15.8–19.8% 15.5–20.2% 14.8–21.0%
22–25 September 2023 Ipsos 20.6% 19.0–22.3% 18.6–22.8% 18.2–23.2% 17.5–24.1%
21–24 September 2023 NMS 19.4% 18.1–20.8% 17.7–21.2% 17.4–21.6% 16.8–22.3%
16–20 September 2023 Polis Slovakia 24.4% 22.8–26.1% 22.4–26.6% 22.0–27.0% 21.2–27.9%
15–19 September 2023 IPSOS
Pravda		 20.1% 18.5–21.8% 18.1–22.2% 17.7–22.6% 17.0–23.5%
6–13 September 2023 Focus
TV Markíza		 18.9% 17.4–20.5% 16.9–21.0% 16.6–21.4% 15.9–22.3%
5–11 September 2023 AKO
TV JOJ		 19.4% 17.9–21.1% 17.4–21.6% 17.1–22.0% 16.4–22.8%
5–9 September 2023 NMS 22.0% 20.6–23.5% 20.2–23.9% 19.9–24.2% 19.3–25.0%
1–6 September 2023 Polis Slovakia
eReport		 24.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25–31 August 2023 Median
RTVS		 17.8% 16.3–19.4% 15.9–19.9% 15.5–20.3% 14.8–21.1%
21–24 August 2023 Median
RTVS		 20.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–16 August 2023 Polis Slovakia
Zoznam		 23.4% 21.7–25.2% 21.3–25.7% 20.9–26.1% 20.1–27.0%
9–16 August 2023 Focus
TV Markíza		 20.0% 18.5–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.7–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
10–14 August 2023 IPSOS
Denník N		 19.7% 18.2–21.4% 17.8–21.9% 17.4–22.3% 16.7–23.2%
7–14 August 2023 AKO
TV JOJ		 19.2% 17.7–20.9% 17.2–21.4% 16.9–21.8% 16.2–22.6%
1–7 August 2023 NMS 23.3% 21.9–24.8% 21.5–25.2% 21.2–25.6% 20.5–26.3%
26 July–1 August 2023 IPSOS
Pravda		 20.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–28 July 2023 AKO
TV JOJ		 19.9% 18.4–21.6% 17.9–22.1% 17.5–22.5% 16.8–23.3%
22–27 July 2023 Polis Slovakia
Zoznam		 23.1% 21.4–24.8% 21.0–25.3% 20.6–25.7% 19.8–26.6%
21–26 July 2023 Median
RTVS		 21.5% 19.9–23.2% 19.4–23.7% 19.1–24.1% 18.3–25.0%
21–26 July 2023 Focus
TV Markíza		 18.1% 16.6–19.7% 16.2–20.1% 15.8–20.5% 15.2–21.4%
19–21 July 2023 Median 20.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
17–21 July 2023 IPSOS
Denník N		 19.4% 17.9–21.1% 17.4–21.6% 17.1–22.0% 16.4–22.8%
10–17 July 2023 AKO 18.1% 16.6–19.7% 16.2–20.2% 15.8–20.6% 15.2–21.4%
4–9 July 2023 NMS 20.6% 19.3–22.0% 18.9–22.4% 18.6–22.8% 17.9–23.5%
21–28 June 2023 Focus
TV Markíza		 19.0% 17.5–20.6% 17.0–21.1% 16.7–21.5% 16.0–22.3%
15 May–20 June 2023 Median 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.0% 15.7–20.4% 15.1–21.2%
12–16 June 2023 IPSOS
Denník N		 18.9% 17.4–20.5% 16.9–21.0% 16.6–21.4% 15.9–22.3%
6–9 June 2023 AKO
TV JOJ		 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
2–8 June 2023 NMS 19.6% 18.3–21.0% 17.9–21.4% 17.6–21.7% 17.0–22.4%
24–31 May 2023 Focus
TV Markíza		 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
16–19 May 2023 IPSOS
Denník N		 16.9% 15.5–18.5% 15.1–19.0% 14.7–19.4% 14.1–20.2%
3–17 May 2023 NMS 21.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–10 May 2023 AKO
TV JOJ		 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
29 April–6 May 2023 Polis Slovakia 24.2% 22.6–26.0% 22.1–26.5% 21.7–27.0% 20.9–27.8%
1 April–6 May 2023 Median 16.3% 15.3–17.4% 15.0–17.8% 14.7–18.0% 14.3–18.6%
19–26 April 2023 Focus
TV Markíza		 17.7% 16.2–19.3% 15.8–19.8% 15.4–20.1% 14.8–20.9%
10–14 April 2023 IPSOS
Denník N		 16.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–11 April 2023 AKO
TV JOJ		 17.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
28 March–2 April 2023 NMS 22.4% 20.8–24.1% 20.3–24.6% 19.9–25.1% 19.2–25.9%
1–31 March 2023 IPSOS
Denník N		 16.2% 14.7–17.7% 14.3–18.2% 14.0–18.6% 13.4–19.3%
14–22 March 2023 Focus
TV Markíza		 17.6% 16.1–19.2% 15.7–19.6% 15.4–20.1% 14.7–20.9%
12 March 2023 AKO
TV JOJ		 17.6% 16.1–19.2% 15.7–19.7% 15.4–20.1% 14.7–20.9%
1 February–5 March 2023 Median 19.5% 18.0–21.1% 17.6–21.6% 17.3–22.0% 16.6–22.8%
7–13 February 2023 AKO
TV JOJ		 16.3% 14.9–17.9% 14.5–18.3% 14.1–18.7% 13.5–19.5%
1–8 February 2023 Focus
TV Markíza		 14.6% 13.2–16.1% 12.8–16.5% 12.5–16.9% 11.9–17.6%
9 January–5 February 2023 Median 17.9% 16.4–19.5% 16.0–20.0% 15.7–20.3% 15.0–21.1%
28 January–1 February 2023 Polis
SITA		 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 18.9–23.2% 18.5–23.6% 17.8–24.4%
18–20 January 2023 IPSOS
Denník N		 13.6% 12.3–15.0% 11.9–15.5% 11.6–15.8% 11.0–16.6%
10–16 January 2023 AKO
TV JOJ		 15.9% 14.5–17.5% 14.1–17.9% 13.8–18.3% 13.1–19.1%
19–23 December 2022 Median 16.7% 15.3–18.3% 14.9–18.7% 14.5–19.1% 13.9–19.9%
16–20 December 2022 Focus
TV Markíza		 16.6% 15.3–18.1% 14.9–18.5% 14.6–18.9% 14.0–19.6%
6–12 December 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 16.1% 14.7–17.7% 14.3–18.1% 13.9–18.5% 13.3–19.3%
30 November–7 December 2022 Focus
TV Markíza		 15.8% 14.4–17.3% 14.0–17.8% 13.7–18.2% 13.0–18.9%
22–28 November 2022 IPSOS
Denník N		 15.6% 14.3–17.2% 13.9–17.6% 13.5–18.0% 12.9–18.8%
8–12 November 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
8–11 November 2022 Focus
TV Markíza		 15.6% 14.3–17.2% 13.9–17.6% 13.5–18.0% 12.9–18.8%
18–21 October 2022 IPSOS
Denník N		 14.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–19 October 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 16.5% 15.1–18.1% 14.7–18.5% 14.3–18.9% 13.7–19.7%
21–27 September 2022 Focus
TV Markíza		 15.3% 14.0–16.9% 13.6–17.3% 13.3–17.7% 12.6–18.5%
14–20 September 2022 IPSOS
Denník N		 15.5% 14.1–17.0% 13.7–17.5% 13.3–17.8% 12.7–18.6%
8–18 September 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–17.0% 12.9–17.4% 12.3–18.1%
15–18 August 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 14.9% 13.5–16.4% 13.2–16.9% 12.8–17.3% 12.2–18.0%
29 July–8 August 2022 IPSOS
Denník N		 15.5% 14.1–17.0% 13.8–17.5% 13.4–17.8% 12.8–18.6%
7–14 July 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 14.6% 13.2–16.1% 12.9–16.6% 12.5–16.9% 11.9–17.7%
20–27 June 2022 Focus
TV Markíza		 14.4% 13.1–15.9% 12.7–16.4% 12.4–16.8% 11.8–17.5%
7–10 June 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 14.8% 13.4–16.3% 13.1–16.8% 12.7–17.1% 12.1–17.9%
25–31 May 2022 Focus
TV Markíza		 14.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–16 May 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 13.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–11 April 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 14.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 March–6 April 2022 Focus
TV Markíza		 15.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–11 March 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 14.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
22 February–1 March 2022 Focus
TV Markíza		 15.6% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–20 February 2022 Median 16.1% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–14 February 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 14.5% 13.2–16.0% 12.8–16.4% 12.5–16.8% 11.8–17.6%
27 January–1 February 2022 Median 15.6% 14.2–17.2% 13.8–17.6% 13.5–18.0% 12.8–18.7%
19–26 January 2022 Focus
TV Markíza		 16.3% 14.9–17.9% 14.5–18.3% 14.2–18.7% 13.5–19.5%
10–17 January 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 13.8% 12.5–15.3% 12.1–15.7% 11.8–16.1% 11.2–16.8%
7–13 December 2021 AKO
TV JOJ		 13.7% 12.4–15.2% 12.0–15.6% 11.7–16.0% 11.1–16.7%
16–23 November 2021 FOCUS
TV Markíza		 15.0% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.0% 12.9–17.4% 12.3–18.1%
8–16 November 2021 AKO
TV JOJ		 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
20–27 October 2021 FOCUS
TV Markíza		 15.5% 14.1–17.0% 13.7–17.5% 13.4–17.8% 12.7–18.6%
17–20 October 2021 Actly
Zoznam/Topky		 17.7% 16.2–19.3% 15.8–19.8% 15.5–20.2% 14.8–21.0%
4–7 October 2021 AKO
TV JOJ		 13.8% 12.5–15.3% 12.1–15.7% 11.8–16.1% 11.2–16.8%
6–13 September 2021 AKO 13.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–7 September 2021 FOCUS
TV Markíza		 14.4% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–15 August 2021 AKO 11.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
6–12 July 2021 AKO 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
7–11 June 2021 AKO 10.6% 9.4–11.9% 9.1–12.3% 8.8–12.7% 8.3–13.3%
2–9 June 2021 FOCUS 12.0% 10.7–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
4–7 June 2021 Actly 14.8% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–19 May 2021 FOCUS 11.8% 10.6–13.2% 10.2–13.6% 10.0–13.9% 9.4–14.6%
13–17 May 2021 AKO 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.1% 7.8–11.4% 7.3–12.1%
12–17 April 2021 AKO 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
31 March–7 April 2021 FOCUS 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.6% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
27–31 March 2021 Actly 10.5% 9.3–11.8% 9.0–12.2% 8.7–12.6% 8.2–13.2%
8–12 March 2021 AKO 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.3–10.3% 7.1–10.6% 6.6–11.2%
17–24 February 2021 FOCUS 9.2% 8.2–10.5% 7.8–10.9% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
8–11 February 2021 AKO 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.4–11.0%
31 January–8 February 2021 Polis
SITA		 8.9% 7.9–10.1% 7.6–10.4% 7.4–10.7% 7.0–11.3%
16–20 January 2021 Polis 8.4% 7.4–9.5% 7.1–9.9% 6.9–10.2% 6.4–10.7%
12–19 January 2021 FOCUS 9.1% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.7% 7.4–11.0% 7.0–11.6%
7–13 January 2021 Median SK
RTVS		 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
19–22 December 2020 Polis 7.8% 6.9–9.0% 6.6–9.3% 6.4–9.6% 5.9–10.1%
17–19 December 2020 AKO 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
8–14 December 2020 FOCUS 9.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.4–11.5% 8.1–11.8% 7.6–12.5%
6–11 December 2020 Actly 10.3% 9.1–11.6% 8.8–12.0% 8.6–12.3% 8.0–13.0%
20–25 November 2020 Polis 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.7–9.5% 6.4–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
18–25 November 2020 FOCUS 9.5% 8.4–10.7% 8.1–11.1% 7.8–11.4% 7.3–12.1%
6–11 November 2020 Median SK
RTVS		 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.5%
21–26 October 2020 Actly 10.8% 9.6–12.2% 9.3–12.5% 9.0–12.9% 8.5–13.6%
15–23 October 2020 Polis 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.7% 6.7–10.0% 6.2–10.6%
7–15 October 2020 FOCUS 10.5% 9.3–11.8% 9.0–12.2% 8.7–12.5% 8.2–13.2%
7–12 October 2020 Polis 7.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.1–8.6% 5.9–8.8% 5.5–9.4%
1–9 October 2020 AKO 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
14–18 September 2020 Median SK
RTVS		 9.1% 8.1–10.4% 7.8–10.8% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
4–9 September 2020 Polis 8.8% 7.8–9.9% 7.6–10.2% 7.3–10.5% 6.9–11.1%
26 August–2 September 2020 FOCUS 10.9% 9.7–12.2% 9.4–12.6% 9.1–12.9% 8.6–13.6%
21–26 August 2020 Actly 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
22–27 July 2020 Polis 8.8% 7.8–10.0% 7.5–10.4% 7.2–10.7% 6.8–11.3%
7–17 July 2020 AKO 10.7% 9.5–12.1% 9.2–12.4% 8.9–12.8% 8.4–13.5%
17–24 June 2020 FOCUS 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.2% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
5–10 June 2020 Polis 18.8% 17.3–20.4% 16.9–20.9% 16.6–21.3% 15.9–22.1%
23–27 May 2020 Polis 21.1% 19.6–22.8% 19.2–23.3% 18.8–23.7% 18.1–24.5%
14–21 May 2020 FOCUS 21.6% 20.0–23.3% 19.5–23.8% 19.1–24.2% 18.4–25.1%
15–19 April 2020 FOCUS 21.8% 20.1–23.5% 19.7–24.0% 19.3–24.4% 18.6–25.2%
14–17 April 2020 AKO 18.3% 16.8–20.0% 16.4–20.4% 16.0–20.8% 15.3–21.6%
4–8 April 2020 Polis 21.2% 19.7–22.9% 19.3–23.4% 18.9–23.8% 18.2–24.6%
18–21 March 2020 FOCUS 21.6% 20.0–23.3% 19.6–23.8% 19.2–24.2% 18.4–25.1%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for SMER–sociálna demokracia.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13.5–14.5% 0.1% 100%  
14.5–15.5% 0.6% 99.9%  
15.5–16.5% 3% 99.3%  
16.5–17.5% 8% 96%  
17.5–18.5% 15% 88% Last Result
18.5–19.5% 20% 73%  
19.5–20.5% 19% 53% Median
20.5–21.5% 13% 34%  
21.5–22.5% 6% 21%  
22.5–23.5% 4% 15%  
23.5–24.5% 4% 11%  
24.5–25.5% 4% 7%  
25.5–26.5% 2% 3%  
26.5–27.5% 0.6% 0.8%  
27.5–28.5% 0.1% 0.1%  
28.5–29.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 38 seats (General Election of 29 February 2020)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 35 30–38 30–42 29–43 25–47
25–26 September 2023 Median 34 34–38 33–39 31–40 30–42
22–26 September 2023 Focus 33 29–35 29–35 28–37 28–39
20–26 September 2023 AKO 30 28–36 26–36 25–36 25–38
22–25 September 2023 Ipsos 35 34–38 32–39 32–41 31–42
21–24 September 2023 NMS 34 34–35 34–35 34–35 33–38
16–20 September 2023 Polis Slovakia 38 35–43 35–45 35–47 35–49
15–19 September 2023 IPSOS
Pravda		 38 32–38 32–40 32–40 31–43
6–13 September 2023 Focus
TV Markíza		 33 33–37 32–38 30–41 29–43
5–11 September 2023 AKO
TV JOJ		 33 32–33 32–35 31–38 29–39
5–9 September 2023 NMS 43 37–46 36–46 36–46 35–47
1–6 September 2023 Polis Slovakia
eReport		          
25–31 August 2023 Median
RTVS		 31 28–32 27–34 27–34 25–36
21–24 August 2023 Median
RTVS		          
11–16 August 2023 Polis Slovakia
Zoznam		 40 40–42 40–46 37–46 37–48
9–16 August 2023 Focus
TV Markíza		 37 33–39 31–41 31–41 31–44
10–14 August 2023 IPSOS
Denník N		 37 33–41 32–41 32–41 31–41
7–14 August 2023 AKO
TV JOJ		 33 31–36 31–37 29–37 29–42
1–7 August 2023 NMS 44 41–49 40–51 38–53 36–53
26 July–1 August 2023 IPSOS
Pravda		          
24–28 July 2023 AKO
TV JOJ		 35 32–35 31–37 29–37 29–41
22–27 July 2023 Polis Slovakia
Zoznam		 42 35–46 35–46 35–46 35–46
21–26 July 2023 Median
RTVS		 37 34–41 33–41 33–43 32–45
21–26 July 2023 Focus
TV Markíza		 37 32–37 30–39 27–39 27–41
19–21 July 2023 Median          
17–21 July 2023 IPSOS
Denník N		 36 33–38 32–38 29–40 28–43
10–17 July 2023 AKO 31 29–36 26–36 26–36 26–38
4–9 July 2023 NMS 40 37–46 37–48 35–49 34–49
21–28 June 2023 Focus
TV Markíza		 35 32–38 31–41 30–43 28–43
15 May–20 June 2023 Median 33 29–36 28–37 28–37 27–39
12–16 June 2023 IPSOS
Denník N		 34 31–38 30–39 29–39 28–41
6–9 June 2023 AKO
TV JOJ		 35 30–36 29–36 27–36 26–36
2–8 June 2023 NMS 37 37–38 36–38 36–40 33–42
24–31 May 2023 Focus
TV Markíza		 34 29–40 29–41 28–41 28–46
16–19 May 2023 IPSOS
Denník N		 32 29–35 28–36 28–37 27–39
3–17 May 2023 NMS          
4–10 May 2023 AKO
TV JOJ		 31 29–36 29–36 29–36 28–38
29 April–6 May 2023 Polis Slovakia 41 38–44 37–45 37–47 36–49
1 April–6 May 2023 Median 29 28–32 28–32 27–33 26–34
19–26 April 2023 Focus
TV Markíza		 37 29–38 28–40 28–40 28–45
10–14 April 2023 IPSOS
Denník N		          
4–11 April 2023 AKO
TV JOJ		          
28 March–2 April 2023 NMS 43 42–49 38–49 38–50 37–51
1–31 March 2023 IPSOS
Denník N		 31 29–36 29–36 27–37 26–38
14–22 March 2023 Focus
TV Markíza		 33 30–36 29–39 29–42 27–42
12 March 2023 AKO
TV JOJ		 32 30–34 30–34 28–35 27–38
1 February–5 March 2023 Median 34 32–38 32–39 32–40 31–41
7–13 February 2023 AKO
TV JOJ		 30 28–31 28–33 27–33 25–35
1–8 February 2023 Focus
TV Markíza		 27 24–28 24–28 24–29 21–31
9 January–5 February 2023 Median 36 33–38 31–39 30–42 29–43
28 January–1 February 2023 Polis
SITA		 37 37–43 36–43 34–44 34–45
18–20 January 2023 IPSOS
Denník N		 24 21–26 21–28 21–28 19–30
10–16 January 2023 AKO
TV JOJ		 30 25–34 24–34 24–34 22–34
19–23 December 2022 Median 31 28–32 27–33 27–34 26–36
16–20 December 2022 Focus
TV Markíza		 29 27–34 27–34 27–34 25–35
6–12 December 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 30 27–33 27–33 26–33 23–33
30 November–7 December 2022 Focus
TV Markíza		 26 24–31 24–31 24–31 23–33
22–28 November 2022 IPSOS
Denník N		 28 26–31 25–32 24–32 24–34
8–12 November 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 28 25–30 25–31 25–32 23–36
8–11 November 2022 Focus
TV Markíza		 28 24–29 24–31 24–32 22–33
18–21 October 2022 IPSOS
Denník N		          
12–19 October 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 28 25–31 25–31 25–32 24–34
21–27 September 2022 Focus
TV Markíza		 27 26–34 25–34 23–34 23–34
14–20 September 2022 IPSOS
Denník N		 29 26–30 25–31 24–32 22–33
8–18 September 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 27 24–28 23–30 23–32 21–33
15–18 August 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 28 25–30 23–31 23–31 21–33
29 July–8 August 2022 IPSOS
Denník N		 27 25–30 24–31 24–31 24–32
7–14 July 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 25 23–30 22–30 21–30 19–31
20–27 June 2022 Focus
TV Markíza		 26 23–31 23–31 22–32 21–32
7–10 June 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 26 25–30 23–31 22–31 21–33
25–31 May 2022 Focus
TV Markíza		          
10–16 May 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		          
5–11 April 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		          
30 March–6 April 2022 Focus
TV Markíza		          
8–11 March 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		          
22 February–1 March 2022 Focus
TV Markíza		          
9–20 February 2022 Median          
8–14 February 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 26 25–28 24–28 24–28 22–30
27 January–1 February 2022 Median 30 27–33 27–38 27–40 26–40
19–26 January 2022 Focus
TV Markíza		 27 26–33 25–33 25–34 23–36
10–17 January 2022 AKO
TV JOJ		 24 23–27 22–30 21–30 20–31
7–13 December 2021 AKO
TV JOJ		 25 23–29 21–30 21–31 20–31
16–23 November 2021 FOCUS
TV Markíza		 29 25–32 24–32 24–32 23–33
8–16 November 2021 AKO
TV JOJ		 24 21–26 20–27 20–28 19–33
20–27 October 2021 FOCUS
TV Markíza		 29 27–29 26–31 26–32 24–34
17–20 October 2021 Actly
Zoznam/Topky		 36 32–36 29–36 29–36 29–39
4–7 October 2021 AKO
TV JOJ		 25 23–28 22–30 22–31 20–32
6–13 September 2021 AKO          
1–7 September 2021 FOCUS
TV Markíza		          
10–15 August 2021 AKO          
6–12 July 2021 AKO 22 19–25 18–25 17–25 16–26
7–11 June 2021 AKO 22 20–24 19–24 17–24 17–27
2–9 June 2021 FOCUS 19 18–24 17–26 17–26 17–26
4–7 June 2021 Actly          
11–19 May 2021 FOCUS 27 22–27 22–27 19–30 18–30
13–17 May 2021 AKO 21 20–21 18–21 16–21 14–24
12–17 April 2021 AKO 19 15–21 14–22 14–22 13–23
31 March–7 April 2021 FOCUS 19 17–22 17–24 16–26 15–26
27–31 March 2021 Actly 21 18–23 16–24 16–24 16–26
8–12 March 2021 AKO 17 17 17 17 17
17–24 February 2021 FOCUS 18 16–21 15–22 15–22 15–22
8–11 February 2021 AKO 17 14–18 12–18 12–19 12–19
31 January–8 February 2021 Polis
SITA		 16 16–20 14–20 13–20 11–20
16–20 January 2021 Polis 15 14–15 14–17 13–18 12–20
12–19 January 2021 FOCUS 23 20–23 18–23 16–23 15–23
7–13 January 2021 Median SK
RTVS		 16 14–18 14–19 13–19 11–20
19–22 December 2020 Polis 14 14 14 14 11–14
17–19 December 2020 AKO 17 17 16–17 15–17 13–19
8–14 December 2020 FOCUS 17 15–21 15–21 15–22 15–23
6–11 December 2020 Actly 20 17–23 16–23 16–24 15–26
20–25 November 2020 Polis 16 13–19 12–19 12–19 11–20
18–25 November 2020 FOCUS 19 16–21 15–21 15–21 14–24
6–11 November 2020 Median SK
RTVS		 13 11–15 10–15 0–16 0–17
21–26 October 2020 Actly 21 18–22 17–22 17–23 16–26
15–23 October 2020 Polis 14 12–17 10–19 10–19 10–19
7–15 October 2020 FOCUS 17 16–21 16–21 16–22 15–24
7–12 October 2020 Polis 13 10–14 10–15 10–15 10–16
1–9 October 2020 AKO 16 13–17 13–18 12–19 12–21
14–18 September 2020 Median SK
RTVS		 18 15–19 14–20 14–20 14–21
4–9 September 2020 Polis 17 15–17 14–19 13–20 12–21
26 August–2 September 2020 FOCUS 18 18–21 18–21 18–22 17–24
21–26 August 2020 Actly 18 18–23 18–24 17–24 16–26
22–27 July 2020 Polis 14 14–17 14–17 13–17 12–21
7–17 July 2020 AKO 20 17–23 17–24 17–24 16–25
17–24 June 2020 FOCUS 39 31–41 30–41 30–41 30–44
5–10 June 2020 Polis 34 33–37 31–39 30–39 29–41
23–27 May 2020 Polis 38 34–41 34–42 34–44 32–45
14–21 May 2020 FOCUS 37 37–42 37–44 34–44 31–44
15–19 April 2020 FOCUS 37 37–39 37–41 37–42 35–45
14–17 April 2020 AKO 35 35 34–35 32–35 29–35
4–8 April 2020 Polis 41 37–46 36–46 34–48 33–50
18–21 March 2020 FOCUS 43 40–46 39–48 37–52 34–53

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for SMER–sociálna demokracia.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.5% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.5%  
27 0.5% 99.2%  
28 1.1% 98.7%  
29 2% 98%  
30 6% 95%  
31 1.0% 90%  
32 11% 89%  
33 1.1% 78%  
34 23% 77%  
35 23% 53% Median
36 6% 30%  
37 3% 25%  
38 12% 22% Last Result
39 1.1% 10%  
40 1.3% 9%  
41 2% 7%  
42 2% 6%  
43 3% 4%  
44 0.4% 1.2%  
45 0.1% 0.8%  
46 0.1% 0.6%  
47 0.2% 0.5%  
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%