Sinn Féin

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 13.8% (General Election of 26 February 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 22.7% 18.8–26.0% 18.2–26.6% 17.7–27.1% 16.8–28.0%
27 January–2 February 2020 Survation
Sinn Féin		 25.0% 23.4–26.8% 22.9–27.3% 22.5–27.7% 21.8–28.6%
30 January–1 February 2020 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 25.0% 23.4–26.7% 23.0–27.1% 22.6–27.5% 21.9–28.3%
25–30 January 2020 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 24.5% 22.8–26.3% 22.3–26.8% 21.9–27.3% 21.1–28.2%
24–30 January 2020 Panelbase
The Times		 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
1–25 January 2020 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail		 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 17.9–22.2% 17.5–22.6% 16.8–23.5%
16–23 January 2020 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
16–18 January 2020 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 21.0% 19.5–22.6% 19.1–23.0% 18.8–23.4% 18.1–24.2%
4–14 January 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 19.2% 17.6–20.9% 17.1–21.4% 16.7–21.8% 16.0–22.7%
24 December 2019 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail		 15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.6% 13.3–16.9% 12.8–17.5%
5–17 December 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 17.9–22.2% 17.5–22.7% 16.8–23.5%
14–21 November 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
1–12 November 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 17.0% 15.5–18.7% 15.1–19.2% 14.7–19.6% 14.0–20.4%
17–24 October 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
3–15 October 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 16.0% 14.5–17.7% 14.1–18.1% 13.7–18.5% 13.1–19.4%
11–13 October 2019 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 14.2% 12.9–15.5% 12.6–15.9% 12.3–16.3% 11.7–16.9%
5–17 September 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 20.1% 18.4–21.8% 17.9–22.3% 17.5–22.7% 16.8–23.6%
5–12 September 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
4–16 July 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 14.4% 12.9–15.9% 12.5–16.3% 12.1–16.7% 11.5–17.5%
31 May–11 June 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 12.2% 10.8–13.6% 10.4–14.0% 10.1–14.4% 9.5–15.2%
24 May 2019 Red C
RTÉ		 15.1% 14.2–15.9% 13.9–16.2% 13.7–16.4% 13.3–16.9%
1–22 May 2019 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail		 16.0% 14.8–17.2% 14.5–17.6% 14.3–17.9% 13.7–18.5%
6–16 May 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 13.1% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.0%
2–14 May 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 19.0% 17.4–20.7% 17.0–21.2% 16.6–21.6% 15.9–22.5%
6–8 May 2019 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 15.9% 14.7–17.1% 14.4–17.5% 14.1–17.8% 13.6–18.4%
11–17 April 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
4–16 April 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 21.1% 19.5–22.9% 19.0–23.4% 18.6–23.9% 17.8–24.7%
21–28 March 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
28 February–12 March 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 19.3% 17.7–21.0% 17.2–21.5% 16.8–21.9% 16.1–22.8%
4–5 March 2019 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 21.0% 19.5–22.6% 19.1–23.0% 18.8–23.4% 18.1–24.2%
14–20 February 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
31 January–12 February 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 17.9% 16.3–19.5% 15.8–20.0% 15.5–20.4% 14.7–21.3%
17–24 January 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.4–15.0% 11.1–15.3% 10.6–16.1%
4–15 January 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 20.0% 18.3–21.7% 17.9–22.3% 17.5–22.7% 16.7–23.6%
14–21 December 2018 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail		 15.7% 14.6–17.0% 14.3–17.3% 14.0–17.6% 13.5–18.2%
6–18 December 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 16.8% 15.3–18.5% 14.9–18.9% 14.5–19.4% 13.8–20.2%
1–13 December 2018 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 21.2% 19.5–23.0% 19.1–23.5% 18.7–24.0% 17.9–24.8%
15–22 November 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.1% 10.4–15.9%
1–13 November 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 23.0% 21.3–24.9% 20.8–25.4% 20.3–25.8% 19.6–26.8%
26 October 2018 Red C
RTÉ		 15.0% 14.2–15.8% 14.0–16.0% 13.8–16.2% 13.5–16.6%
11–17 October 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–17.0% 12.9–17.4% 12.3–18.1%
5–16 October 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 19.3% 17.7–21.0% 17.2–21.5% 16.8–21.9% 16.1–22.8%
10–12 October 2018 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 24.2% 22.7–25.9% 22.3–26.4% 21.9–26.8% 21.2–27.6%
3–10 October 2018 Red C
Paddy Power		 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
6–18 September 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 19.9% 18.3–21.6% 17.8–22.1% 17.5–22.6% 16.7–23.4%
6–13 September 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 14.2% 12.8–15.6% 12.4–16.0% 12.1–16.4% 11.5–17.1%
15–24 August 2018 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail		 19.0% 17.4–20.7% 17.0–21.2% 16.6–21.6% 15.9–22.5%
5–17 July 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 22.4% 20.7–24.2% 20.2–24.7% 19.8–25.1% 19.0–26.0%
12 June 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 24.0% 22.2–25.8% 21.7–26.4% 21.3–26.8% 20.5–27.7%
10–16 May 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
3–15 May 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 24.3% 22.5–26.2% 22.1–26.7% 21.6–27.1% 20.8–28.0%
19–30 April 2018 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 22.2% 20.6–24.0% 20.1–24.5% 19.8–24.9% 19.0–25.8%
26 April 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 14.2% 12.8–15.6% 12.4–16.0% 12.1–16.4% 11.5–17.1%
16–17 April 2018 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 22.0% 20.5–23.6% 20.1–24.1% 19.7–24.4% 19.1–25.2%
5–17 April 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 20.7% 18.9–22.4% 18.5–22.9% 18.1–23.3% 17.3–24.2%
15–22 March 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 16.2% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
6–13 March 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 18.7% 17.1–20.4% 16.6–20.9% 16.2–21.4% 15.5–22.2%
15–22 February 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 14.1% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
6–14 February 2018 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 18.9% 17.3–20.6% 16.9–21.0% 16.5–21.5% 15.8–22.3%
1–13 February 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 16.0% 14.5–17.6% 14.1–18.1% 13.8–18.5% 13.1–19.3%
15–25 January 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9% 12.9–17.3% 12.3–18.1%
22–23 January 2018 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 19.0% 17.6–20.5% 17.2–21.0% 16.9–21.3% 16.2–22.1%
4–16 January 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 18.0% 16.5–19.8% 16.1–20.2% 15.7–20.7% 15.0–21.5%
24 December 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 17.0% 15.5–18.7% 15.0–19.1% 14.7–19.6% 14.0–20.4%
22 December 2017 Ireland Thinks
Irish Daily Mail		 16.0% 14.7–17.5% 14.3–17.9% 14.0–18.2% 13.4–19.0%
7 December 2017 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 19.0% 17.6–20.5% 17.2–21.0% 16.9–21.3% 16.2–22.1%
23 November 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 16.1% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
7 November 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 14.2% 12.8–15.7% 12.4–16.2% 12.0–16.6% 11.4–17.3%
20 October 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 14.0% 12.6–15.4% 12.3–15.9% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–17.0%
10 October 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 18.9% 17.3–20.7% 16.9–21.2% 16.5–21.6% 15.8–22.4%
2 October 2017 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 18.9% 17.5–20.4% 17.1–20.9% 16.8–21.2% 16.2–22.0%
22 September 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 16.1% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
12 September 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 19.0% 17.4–20.7% 17.0–21.2% 16.6–21.6% 15.9–22.5%
21 July 2017 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 19.8% 18.2–21.5% 17.7–22.0% 17.4–22.4% 16.6–23.3%
11 July 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 18.0% 16.4–19.7% 16.0–20.2% 15.6–20.6% 14.9–21.4%
5 July 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 18.4% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
10 June 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 18.0% 16.4–19.5% 15.9–19.9% 15.6–20.3% 14.9–21.1%
25 May 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 15.1% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.0% 13.0–17.4% 12.3–18.2%
13 May 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 18.1% 16.5–19.7% 16.0–20.1% 15.7–20.6% 15.0–21.4%
28 April 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 18.2% 16.5–19.7% 16.1–20.1% 15.8–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
11 April 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 17.8% 16.3–19.5% 15.9–20.0% 15.5–20.4% 14.8–21.2%
24 March 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 17.0% 15.5–18.5% 15.1–19.0% 14.7–19.4% 14.1–20.2%
8 March 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 23.2% 21.4–25.0% 20.9–25.5% 20.5–25.9% 19.7–26.8%
28 February 2017 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 21.0% 19.5–22.6% 19.1–23.0% 18.8–23.4% 18.1–24.2%
23 February 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 19.2% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.2% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
16 February 2017 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.5%
8 February 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 19.0% 17.4–20.7% 17.0–21.1% 16.6–21.6% 15.9–22.4%
26 January 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 14.1% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–16.0% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.1%
21 January 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 16.8% 15.3–18.5% 14.9–19.0% 14.5–19.4% 13.9–20.2%
13 December 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 19.2% 17.5–20.8% 17.0–21.3% 16.6–21.7% 15.9–22.6%
6 December 2016 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 17.0% 15.7–18.5% 15.3–18.9% 15.0–19.2% 14.4–20.0%
25 November 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 16.3% 14.8–17.8% 14.4–18.2% 14.0–18.6% 13.4–19.4%
9 November 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 17.1% 15.6–18.8% 15.2–19.3% 14.8–19.7% 14.1–20.5%
27 October 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 13.0% 11.7–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.2% 10.4–15.9%
20 October 2016 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 17.9–22.2% 17.5–22.6% 16.8–23.5%
12 October 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 17.2% 15.6–18.8% 15.2–19.3% 14.8–19.7% 14.1–20.5%
4 October 2016 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 19.2% 17.8–20.7% 17.4–21.1% 17.0–21.5% 16.4–22.2%
22 September 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9% 12.9–17.3% 12.3–18.1%
14 September 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 18.1% 16.6–19.8% 16.1–20.3% 15.7–20.8% 15.0–21.6%
27 July 2016 Red C
Paddy Power		 15.1% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.1% 13.0–17.5% 12.4–18.2%
13 July 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 12.9% 11.6–14.3% 11.2–14.7% 10.9–15.1% 10.3–15.8%
13 July 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 14.0% 12.6–15.5% 12.2–16.0% 11.9–16.4% 11.2–17.2%
7 July 2016 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 16.2% 14.9–17.6% 14.5–18.0% 14.2–18.4% 13.6–19.1%
29 June 2016 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
15 June 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 17.3% 15.7–18.9% 15.2–19.4% 14.9–19.8% 14.2–20.6%
26 May 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 15.2% 13.8–16.7% 13.4–17.1% 13.0–17.5% 12.4–18.3%
11 May 2016 Red C
Paddy Power		 16.1% 14.6–17.5% 14.2–18.0% 13.8–18.4% 13.2–19.1%
11 May 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 15.9% 14.4–17.6% 14.0–18.1% 13.7–18.5% 13.0–19.3%
13 April 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 17.1% 15.5–18.6% 15.0–19.1% 14.7–19.5% 14.0–20.3%
10 March 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 15.3% 13.7–16.6% 13.4–17.1% 13.0–17.5% 12.4–18.2%

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Sinn Féin.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13.5–14.5% 0% 100% Last Result
14.5–15.5% 0% 100%  
15.5–16.5% 0.3% 100%  
16.5–17.5% 2% 99.7%  
17.5–18.5% 6% 98%  
18.5–19.5% 11% 92%  
19.5–20.5% 13% 82%  
20.5–21.5% 11% 69%  
21.5–22.5% 7% 58%  
22.5–23.5% 8% 51% Median
23.5–24.5% 13% 43%  
24.5–25.5% 14% 30%  
25.5–26.5% 10% 16%  
26.5–27.5% 4% 5%  
27.5–28.5% 1.0% 1.2%  
28.5–29.5% 0.2% 0.2%  
29.5–30.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 23 seats (General Election of 26 February 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 38 36–41 35–41 34–42 34–42
27 January–2 February 2020 Survation
Sinn Féin		 41 39–41 39–42 38–42 38–42
30 January–1 February 2020 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 39 38–40 38–40 38–40 37–41
25–30 January 2020 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 39 38–42 37–42 37–42 36–42
24–30 January 2020 Panelbase
The Times		 37 36–39 36–39 35–39 34–40
1–25 January 2020 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail		 36 34–38 34–38 34–38 32–40
16–23 January 2020 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 34 34–36 34–36 34–37 33–38
16–18 January 2020 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 36 35–38 35–38 35–38 34–39
4–14 January 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 37 36–37 35–38 34–38 33–38
24 December 2019 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail		 32 26–33 24–33 23–34 22–35
5–17 December 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 37 35–37 34–38 34–38 32–39
14–21 November 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 16 13–22 12–23 11–24 10–27
1–12 November 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 34 32–36 31–37 31–37 28–38
17–24 October 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 17 15–22 14–24 13–25 9–26
3–15 October 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 32 28–34 27–35 26–35 23–37
11–13 October 2019 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 30 22–30 21–32 20–32 17–33
5–17 September 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 39 36–41 36–42 36–42 34–44
5–12 September 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 21 16–26 15–27 14–27 14–29
4–16 July 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 28 25–34 25–34 24–36 20–37
31 May–11 June 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 22 18–28 16–28 16–30 13–31
24 May 2019 Red C
RTÉ		 31 31–32 28–33 28–34 25–35
1–22 May 2019 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail		 34 34–36 34–37 34–37 30–38
6–16 May 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 23 22–29 21–30 20–30 18–31
2–14 May 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 35 34–37 32–37 32–37 30–38
6–8 May 2019 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 29 27–31 26–31 26–32 23–34
11–17 April 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 28 21–32 20–34 20–34 18–35
4–16 April 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 40 37–43 37–43 36–43 36–44
21–28 March 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 23 18–28 18–29 18–30 17–32
28 February–12 March 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 36 35–41 34–41 33–41 32–43
4–5 March 2019 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 39 36–42 35–43 35–43 34–46
14–20 February 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 36 33–37 32–37 31–38 30–39
31 January–12 February 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 33 31–36 31–36 31–37 28–38
17–24 January 2019 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 25 20–28 19–29 18–30 16–33
4–15 January 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 36 34–41 33–42 33–42 33–43
14–21 December 2018 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail		 32 29–34 27–34 25–34 22–34
6–18 December 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 33 29–35 28–36 28–36 25–37
1–13 December 2018 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 40 38–40 38–40 37–42 36–45
15–22 November 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 23 18–26 17–28 16–29 16–33
1–13 November 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 42 37–45 36–45 35–46 35–47
26 October 2018 Red C
RTÉ		 28 26–30 25–31 24–31 23–34
11–17 October 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 30 24–32 22–33 22–34 20–36
5–16 October 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 38 35–42 33–42 33–42 31–42
10–12 October 2018 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 41 39–45 39–45 38–45 37–46
3–10 October 2018 Red C
Paddy Power		 27 21–30 20–31 19–32 18–33
6–18 September 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 36 34–39 33–40 32–42 32–43
6–13 September 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 25 21–31 19–32 19–33 18–34
15–24 August 2018 Ireland Thinks
The Irish Daily Mail		 35 34–38 32–40 32–41 30–41
5–17 July 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 42 40–44 39–46 38–46 38–46
12 June 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 40 39–42 38–42 38–42 36–44
10–16 May 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 32 26–33 25–34 24–35 22–36
3–15 May 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 45 42–47 40–47 40–48 38–49
19–30 April 2018 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 40 38–42 38–45 37–45 36–46
26 April 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 23 19–31 19–32 18–33 17–35
16–17 April 2018 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 40 36–42 35–44 35–44 35–45
5–17 April 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 37 36–40 35–40 33–40 32–41
15–22 March 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 32 27–34 26–35 24–36 21–37
6–13 March 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 36 33–38 33–40 32–40 29–42
15–22 February 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 26 21–32 18–32 18–32 17–33
6–14 February 2018 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 37 35–39 34–39 33–40 32–42
1–13 February 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 32 25–33 25–34 24–35 22–38
15–25 January 2018 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 29 24–33 23–33 22–34 20–36
22–23 January 2018 Ipsos MRBI
The Irish Times		 36 33–39 33–39 32–39 31–40
4–16 January 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 36 33–38 32–38 31–39 27–41
24 December 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 34 30–36 29–37 27–37 25–39
22 December 2017 Ireland Thinks
Irish Daily Mail		 32 27–33 24–34 23–34 21–35
7 December 2017 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 37 32–38 31–38 31–39 31–40
23 November 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 33 29–35 29–35 28–35 25–38
7 November 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 24 21–29 20–30 19–31 19–32
20 October 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 28 24–31 20–32 16–33 15–34
10 October 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 37 34–40 34–42 33–42 31–43
2 October 2017 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 35 32–36 32–37 31–37 30–39
22 September 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 32 30–34 28–35 26–35 21–35
12 September 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 38 35–41 35–41 33–41 32–42
21 July 2017 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 37 36–40 35–41 34–41 32–43
11 July 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 36 33–39 33–41 33–41 30–42
5 July 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 34 32–38 32–38 32–39 31–41
10 June 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 36 33–38 33–39 32–40 30–41
25 May 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 30 29–32 26–33 24–33 21–35
13 May 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 36 33–37 33–40 32–41 28–42
28 April 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 37 31–37 31–38 31–38 28–41
11 April 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 36 34–37 32–38 32–39 29–40
24 March 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 34 33–35 32–37 31–37 28–38
8 March 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 43 41–46 40–48 40–49 39–50
28 February 2017 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 39 35–42 34–42 34–43 34–44
23 February 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 36 33–38 33–39 32–40 32–41
16 February 2017 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 39 35–41 34–42 34–43 33–44
8 February 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 39 37–39 36–40 35–41 33–41
26 January 2017 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 24 22–30 21–33 19–34 19–34
21 January 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 36 33–36 32–36 32–36 27–38
13 December 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 38 34–41 34–41 33–42 32–44
6 December 2016 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 33 29–35 28–37 28–38 26–38
25 November 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 33 31–35 29–37 28–37 26–37
9 November 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 33 31–35 30–36 30–36 27–39
27 October 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 26 23–30 22–30 20–32 18–33
20 October 2016 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 36 34–40 34–40 33–41 32–43
12 October 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 33 30–39 30–40 28–40 28–41
4 October 2016 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 35 34–37 34–37 33–38 31–39
22 September 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 33 25–34 24–34 22–34 21–36
14 September 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 36 33–39 31–39 30–40 28–42
27 July 2016 Red C
Paddy Power		 31 28–34 26–34 26–35 24–35
13 July 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 27 21–29 20–30 19–31 16–33
13 July 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 26 22–32 20–34 20–34 17–34
7 July 2016 Ipsos MRBI
Irish Times		 32 30–37 29–37 28–38 27–39
29 June 2016 Millward Brown
The Sunday Independent		 35 34–36 34–39 34–40 32–41
15 June 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 34 32–38 31–39 30–39 28–40
26 May 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 29 26–34 25–34 23–34 22–36
11 May 2016 Red C
Paddy Power		 32 29–33 27–35 27–35 25–36
11 May 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 33 30–35 29–35 28–35 26–37
13 April 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes
The Sunday Times		 35 33–37 32–38 31–38 28–40
10 March 2016 Red C
The Sunday Business Post		 32 29–33 28–34 27–34 24–37

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Sinn Féin.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100% Last Result
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.8%  
34 4% 99.5%  
35 4% 95%  
36 10% 91%  
37 24% 81%  
38 18% 57% Median
39 13% 39%  
40 14% 26%  
41 9% 12%  
42 3% 3%  
43 0% 0%