Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 18.2% 16.6–19.7% 16.1–20.1% 15.8–20.5% 15.1–21.2%
15–18 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.4–20.8% 16.9–21.4%
12–18 November 2024 Forsa 18.0% 17.0–19.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1%
11–15 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 19.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–12 November 2024 YouGov 18.8% 17.7–20.1% 17.4–20.4% 17.1–20.7% 16.6–21.3%
8–11 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 19.5% 18.6–20.5% 18.4–20.7% 18.1–21.0% 17.7–21.4%
5–11 November 2024 Forsa 17.0% 16.0–18.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.6–18.5% 15.1–19.0%
7–8 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 19.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 November 2024 Infratest dimap 18.0% 16.6–19.6% 16.2–20.1% 15.8–20.5% 15.2–21.2%
5–7 November 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.0% 15.8–20.4% 15.1–21.2%
7 November 2024 Forsa 17.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–4 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 18.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 November 2024 Forsa 16.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–2 November 2024 Ipsos 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
1 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 18.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
28–30 October 2024 Infratest dimap 17.0% 15.8–18.4% 15.4–18.8% 15.1–19.1% 14.5–19.8%
23–29 October 2024 Verian 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.4–18.7% 15.1–19.0% 14.6–19.7%
25–28 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.4–20.8% 16.9–21.4%
22–28 October 2024 Forsa 17.0% 16.0–18.2% 15.7–18.5% 15.4–18.8% 14.9–19.3%
21–25 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 19.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18–21 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.8% 16.8–21.3%
15–21 October 2024 Forsa 17.0% 16.1–18.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.6–18.5% 15.1–19.0%
14–18 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 19.0% 17.6–20.5% 17.2–20.9% 16.9–21.3% 16.2–22.1%
15–17 October 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 18.0% 16.6–19.6% 16.2–20.0% 15.9–20.4% 15.2–21.2%
11–14 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 18.5% 17.4–19.6% 17.1–20.0% 16.8–20.3% 16.3–20.8%
8–14 October 2024 Forsa 17.0% 16.0–18.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.6–18.5% 15.1–19.0%
7–11 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 19.0% 17.6–20.5% 17.2–20.9% 16.8–21.3% 16.2–22.0%
11 October 2024 Allensbach 15.9% 14.5–17.4% 14.1–17.8% 13.7–18.2% 13.1–19.0%
7–9 October 2024 Infratest dimap 17.0% 15.8–18.4% 15.4–18.8% 15.1–19.2% 14.5–19.8%
4–8 October 2024 YouGov 18.0% 16.9–19.2% 16.5–19.6% 16.3–19.9% 15.7–20.5%
4–7 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 20.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–7 October 2024 Forsa 17.0% 15.9–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.3%
2–4 October 2024 Ipsos 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
4 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 20.0% 18.6–21.5% 18.2–21.9% 17.8–22.3% 17.2–23.0%
1 October 2024 Verian 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.5–18.7% 15.2–19.0% 14.6–19.7%
27–30 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 19.0% 17.9–20.1% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.8% 16.8–21.3%
24–30 September 2024 Forsa 17.0% 16.0–18.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.6–18.5% 15.1–19.0%
23–27 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 19.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–26 September 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 17.0% 15.6–18.5% 15.2–18.9% 14.9–19.3% 14.3–20.0%
20–23 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.5–21.5% 18.3–21.8% 17.8–22.4%
17–23 September 2024 Forsa 17.0% 16.1–18.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.6–18.5% 15.1–19.0%
16–19 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 20.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
13–16 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 19.5% 18.4–20.7% 18.1–21.0% 17.8–21.3% 17.3–21.9%
11–16 September 2024 GMS 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
10–16 September 2024 Forsa 17.0% 16.0–18.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.6–18.5% 15.1–19.0%
9–13 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 19.0% 17.6–20.5% 17.2–20.9% 16.9–21.3% 16.2–22.1%
11 September 2024 Allensbach 17.0% 15.6–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.4% 14.2–20.2%
6–10 September 2024 YouGov 18.0% 16.8–19.2% 16.5–19.6% 16.2–19.9% 15.7–20.5%
6–9 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 19.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–9 September 2024 Forsa 17.0% 16.1–18.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.6–18.5% 15.1–19.0%
6–7 September 2024 Ipsos 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
2–6 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 19.0% 17.6–20.5% 17.2–20.9% 16.8–21.3% 16.2–22.0%
3–5 September 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 17.0% 15.6–18.5% 15.2–18.9% 14.9–19.3% 14.3–20.0%
3–4 September 2024 Infratest dimap 17.0% 15.8–18.4% 15.4–18.8% 15.1–19.2% 14.5–19.9%
3 September 2024 Verian 17.0% 15.8–18.4% 15.5–18.7% 15.2–19.1% 14.6–19.7%
2 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 19.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 September 2024 Forsa 17.0% 16.0–18.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.6–18.5% 15.1–19.0%
26–30 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 19.0% 17.6–20.5% 17.2–20.9% 16.8–21.3% 16.2–22.0%
23–26 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 18.5% 17.4–19.7% 17.1–20.0% 16.9–20.3% 16.4–20.9%
20–26 August 2024 Forsa 17.0% 16.0–18.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.6–18.5% 15.1–19.0%
19–23 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 18.0% 16.6–19.5% 16.2–19.9% 15.9–20.3% 15.3–21.0%
16–19 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.8% 16.8–21.3%
13–19 August 2024 Forsa 17.0% 16.1–18.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.6–18.5% 15.2–19.0%
12–16 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 19.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–15 August 2024 Allensbach 16.0% 14.6–17.5% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.3% 13.3–19.1%
12–14 August 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 16.0% 14.7–17.5% 14.3–17.9% 14.0–18.3% 13.4–19.0%
9–13 August 2024 YouGov 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.8% 16.8–21.4%
9–12 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.4% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.3%
6–12 August 2024 GMS 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.4% 14.1–20.2%
6–12 August 2024 Forsa 17.0% 16.0–18.2% 15.7–18.5% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.3%
5–9 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 18.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–7 August 2024 Infratest dimap 16.0% 14.8–17.4% 14.4–17.8% 14.1–18.1% 13.5–18.8%
31 July–6 August 2024 Verian 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.5–17.7% 14.2–18.0% 13.7–18.6%
2–5 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 17.0% 15.9–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.3%
5 August 2024 Forsa 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.3%
2–4 August 2024 Ipsos 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
2 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 18.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
26–29 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.5% 16.4–19.8% 15.9–20.3%
23–29 July 2024 Forsa 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.5% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.3%
22–26 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 18.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19–22 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 17.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–22 July 2024 Forsa 17.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
15–19 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 17.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–19 July 2024 Allensbach 17.0% 15.6–18.7% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.2–20.3%
12–15 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 18.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–15 July 2024 Forsa 16.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–12 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 18.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–11 July 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 17.0% 15.7–18.5% 15.3–18.9% 14.9–19.3% 14.3–20.1%
3–9 July 2024 Verian 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.5–17.7% 14.2–18.0% 13.7–18.6%
5–8 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 17.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–8 July 2024 Forsa 17.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–7 July 2024 Ipsos 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
1–5 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 18.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 July 2024 YouGov 18.8% 17.6–20.1% 17.3–20.4% 17.0–20.7% 16.5–21.4%
1–3 July 2024 Infratest dimap 17.0% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.8% 15.0–19.2% 14.4–19.8%
1 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 17.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 July 2024 Forsa 16.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–28 June 2024 INSA and YouGov 17.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
25–27 June 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 17.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
21–24 June 2024 INSA and YouGov 17.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18–24 June 2024 Forsa 16.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
17–21 June 2024 INSA and YouGov 17.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
14–17 June 2024 INSA and YouGov 17.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–17 June 2024 GMS 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.0–21.3%
11–17 June 2024 Forsa 16.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–15 June 2024 INSA and YouGov 17.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–13 June 2024 Allensbach 15.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
10–12 June 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 16.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–11 June 2024 Verian 17.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–10 June 2024 INSA and YouGov 16.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–10 June 2024 Forsa 16.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Alternative für Deutschland (ESN).

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 0% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 0% 100%  
1.5–2.5% 0% 100%  
2.5–3.5% 0% 100%  
3.5–4.5% 0% 100%  
4.5–5.5% 0% 100%  
5.5–6.5% 0% 100%  
6.5–7.5% 0% 100%  
7.5–8.5% 0% 100%  
8.5–9.5% 0% 100%  
9.5–10.5% 0% 100%  
10.5–11.5% 0% 100%  
11.5–12.5% 0% 100%  
12.5–13.5% 0% 100%  
13.5–14.5% 0.1% 100%  
14.5–15.5% 1.5% 99.9%  
15.5–16.5% 8% 98%  
16.5–17.5% 21% 91%  
17.5–18.5% 32% 70% Median
18.5–19.5% 26% 38%  
19.5–20.5% 10% 12%  
20.5–21.5% 2% 2%  
21.5–22.5% 0.2% 0.2%  
22.5–23.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 18 15–19 15–19 15–19 14–20
15–18 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 18 17–19 17–19 17–20 17–20
12–18 November 2024 Forsa 17 17–18 16–18 16–19 15–20
11–15 November 2024 INSA and YouGov          
8–12 November 2024 YouGov 19 18–19 18–19 17–19 17–19
8–11 November 2024 INSA and YouGov 19 19 19 19 18–19
5–11 November 2024 Forsa 16 16 16 16 15–17
7–8 November 2024 INSA and YouGov          
7 November 2024 Infratest dimap 18 15–18 15–19 14–19 14–20
5–7 November 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 18 16–18 15–18 15–18 14–21
7 November 2024 Forsa          
1–4 November 2024 INSA and YouGov          
4 November 2024 Forsa          
1–2 November 2024 Ipsos 18 15–19 15–19 15–19 14–20
1 November 2024 INSA and YouGov          
28–30 October 2024 Infratest dimap 17 15–18 15–18 15–18 15–18
23–29 October 2024 Verian 16 15–18 14–18 14–18 14–19
25–28 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 19 17–19 17–19 17–19 17–20
22–28 October 2024 Forsa 15 15–16 15–18 15–19 15–19
21–25 October 2024 INSA and YouGov          
18–21 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 20 18–20 17–20 17–20 17–20
15–21 October 2024 Forsa 17 15–18 15–18 15–18 15–18
14–18 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 18 16–20 16–20 16–20 16–20
15–17 October 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 18 17–19 17–19 16–19 15–20
11–14 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 20 17–20 17–20 17–20 16–20
8–14 October 2024 Forsa 17 15–18 15–18 14–18 14–19
7–11 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 18 17–19 16–19 16–20 16–21
11 October 2024 Allensbach 15 14–15 14–16 14–17 12–17
7–9 October 2024 Infratest dimap 17 14–18 14–18 14–18 13–18
4–8 October 2024 YouGov 18 18 18 18 18
4–7 October 2024 INSA and YouGov          
1–7 October 2024 Forsa 16 16–17 15–18 15–18 15–18
2–4 October 2024 Ipsos 17 15–20 15–20 15–21 14–21
4 October 2024 INSA and YouGov 18 18–21 18–21 18–22 16–22
1 October 2024 Verian 16 16 16 16–17 15–18
27–30 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 17 16–20 16–20 16–20 16–20
24–30 September 2024 Forsa 16 15–17 15–17 15–17 15–18
23–27 September 2024 INSA and YouGov          
24–26 September 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 17 15–17 15–17 15–17 15–18
20–23 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 18 18–20 18–20 18–21 17–22
17–23 September 2024 Forsa 16 16–17 16–17 16–17 15–17
16–19 September 2024 INSA and YouGov          
13–16 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 18 17–20 17–20 17–20 17–21
11–16 September 2024 GMS 16 15–19 15–19 14–19 14–19
10–16 September 2024 Forsa 16 16 16–18 15–18 15–18
9–13 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 18 18–19 18–20 17–20 16–20
11 September 2024 Allensbach 16 15–18 15–18 14–18 13–19
6–10 September 2024 YouGov 17 17–18 16–18 16–18 16–19
6–9 September 2024 INSA and YouGov          
3–9 September 2024 Forsa 15 15–16 15–16 15–16 14–18
6–7 September 2024 Ipsos 16 15–19 15–20 14–20 14–21
2–6 September 2024 INSA and YouGov 19 18–20 18–20 18–20 16–20
3–5 September 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 16 14–18 14–18 14–18 14–18
3–4 September 2024 Infratest dimap 17 16–17 15–17 15–17 15–18
3 September 2024 Verian 16 15–17 15–18 15–18 14–18
2 September 2024 INSA and YouGov          
2 September 2024 Forsa 17 16–17 16–17 16–17 16–17
26–30 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 18 16–19 16–19 16–20 16–21
23–26 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 19 17–19 17–19 17–20 16–20
20–26 August 2024 Forsa 16 15–17 15–17 15–18 14–19
19–23 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 16 15–19 15–19 14–19 13–20
16–19 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 18 17–19 17–19 17–20 16–20
13–19 August 2024 Forsa 17 16–18 16–18 15–18 15–18
12–16 August 2024 INSA and YouGov          
3–15 August 2024 Allensbach 15 14–15 14–17 13–17 13–18
12–14 August 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 13 13–17 13–18 13–18 13–18
9–13 August 2024 YouGov 18 17–20 17–21 16–21 15–21
9–12 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 18 17–18 17–18 16–19 16–20
6–12 August 2024 GMS 15 15–18 15–18 15–18 13–18
6–12 August 2024 Forsa 17 15–17 15–18 15–18 14–18
5–9 August 2024 INSA and YouGov          
5–7 August 2024 Infratest dimap 16 15–16 15–16 15–16 14–17
31 July–6 August 2024 Verian 15 15–16 14–16 13–17 13–17
2–5 August 2024 INSA and YouGov 16 16 16 16–18 16–18
5 August 2024 Forsa 16 16–17 15–18 15–18 14–19
2–4 August 2024 Ipsos 15 14–16 13–16 13–17 12–18
2 August 2024 INSA and YouGov          
26–29 July 2024 INSA and YouGov 17 17–18 16–19 16–19 15–19
23–29 July 2024 Forsa 15 15–16 15–17 14–17 14–18
22–26 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
19–22 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
16–22 July 2024 Forsa          
15–19 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
5–19 July 2024 Allensbach 16 15–16 14–16 14–17 13–19
12–15 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
9–15 July 2024 Forsa          
8–12 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
9–11 July 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 17 14–18 14–19 14–19 13–19
3–9 July 2024 Verian 15 14–16 14–17 14–17 14–18
5–8 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
2–8 July 2024 Forsa          
5–7 July 2024 Ipsos 16 15–16 14–16 14–17 13–17
1–5 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
3 July 2024 YouGov 19 16–19 16–19 16–20 16–20
1–3 July 2024 Infratest dimap 17 17 17 15–17 14–18
1 July 2024 INSA and YouGov          
1 July 2024 Forsa          
24–28 June 2024 INSA and YouGov          
25–27 June 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen          
21–24 June 2024 INSA and YouGov          
18–24 June 2024 Forsa          
17–21 June 2024 INSA and YouGov          
14–17 June 2024 INSA and YouGov          
11–17 June 2024 GMS 19 16–19 15–19 15–19 14–21
11–17 June 2024 Forsa          
10–15 June 2024 INSA and YouGov          
1–13 June 2024 Allensbach          
10–12 June 2024 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen          
5–11 June 2024 Verian          
7–10 June 2024 INSA and YouGov          
4–10 June 2024 Forsa          

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Alternative für Deutschland (ESN).

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 2% 100%  
15 8% 98%  
16 14% 90%  
17 17% 75%  
18 40% 58% Median
19 17% 18%  
20 0.8% 0.9%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%