Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N/A | Poll Average | 18.6% | 16.8–20.3% | 16.3–20.8% | 15.8–21.2% | 15.0–22.2% |
16–19 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 20.0% | 18.6–21.6% | 18.2–22.0% | 17.8–22.4% | 17.2–23.1% |
17–19 December 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 19.0% | 17.5–20.5% | 17.1–21.0% | 16.8–21.4% | 16.1–22.1% |
16–18 December 2024 | Infratest dimap | 19.0% | 17.7–20.5% | 17.3–20.9% | 17.0–21.2% | 16.4–21.9% |
11–17 December 2024 | Verian | 18.0% | 16.7–19.3% | 16.4–19.7% | 16.1–20.0% | 15.5–20.7% |
13–16 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
10–16 December 2024 | Forsa | 19.0% | 18.0–20.0% | 17.7–20.3% | 17.5–20.6% | 17.0–21.1% |
9–13 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 20.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
12 December 2024 | Allensbach | 18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.0–21.3% |
6–9 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
3–9 December 2024 | Forsa | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
2–6 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
3–5 December 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 17.0% | 15.7–18.5% | 15.3–18.9% | 15.0–19.2% | 14.3–20.0% |
2–4 December 2024 | Infratest dimap | 18.0% | 16.7–19.4% | 16.3–19.8% | 16.0–20.2% | 15.4–20.9% |
3 December 2024 | YouGov | 18.8% | 17.7–20.0% | 17.3–20.3% | 17.1–20.6% | 16.6–21.2% |
2 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18.5% | 17.4–19.7% | 17.1–20.0% | 16.9–20.3% | 16.4–20.9% |
2 December 2024 | GMS | 17.0% | 15.6–18.6% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.8–19.5% | 14.1–20.3% |
2 December 2024 | Forsa | 18.0% | 17.0–19.0% | 16.8–19.3% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.0% |
1 December 2024 | Ipsos | 18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.0–21.3% |
25–29 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18.0% | 16.6–19.5% | 16.2–19.9% | 15.9–20.3% | 15.3–21.0% |
20–26 November 2024 | Verian | 18.0% | 16.8–19.4% | 16.4–19.8% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.5–20.8% |
22–25 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.5% | 18.4–20.7% | 18.1–21.0% | 17.8–21.3% | 17.3–21.9% |
19–25 November 2024 | Forsa | 18.0% | 17.0–19.0% | 16.8–19.3% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% |
18–21 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.0% | 17.6–20.6% | 17.3–21.0% | 16.9–21.4% | 16.3–22.1% |
19–21 November 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 18.0% | 16.6–19.5% | 16.2–19.9% | 15.9–20.3% | 15.3–21.0% |
18–20 November 2024 | Infratest dimap | 19.0% | 17.6–20.4% | 17.3–20.8% | 16.9–21.2% | 16.3–21.9% |
15–18 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.0% | 17.9–20.2% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.4–20.8% | 16.9–21.4% |
12–18 November 2024 | Forsa | 18.0% | 17.0–19.0% | 16.8–19.3% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% |
11–15 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
2–14 November 2024 | Allensbach | 17.0% | 15.5–18.5% | 15.2–19.0% | 14.8–19.4% | 14.2–20.1% |
8–12 November 2024 | YouGov | 18.8% | 17.7–20.1% | 17.4–20.4% | 17.1–20.7% | 16.6–21.3% |
8–11 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.5% | 18.6–20.5% | 18.4–20.7% | 18.1–21.0% | 17.7–21.4% |
5–11 November 2024 | Forsa | 17.0% | 16.0–18.0% | 15.8–18.3% | 15.6–18.5% | 15.1–19.0% |
7–8 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
7 November 2024 | Infratest dimap | 18.0% | 16.6–19.6% | 16.2–20.1% | 15.8–20.5% | 15.2–21.2% |
5–7 November 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.0% | 15.8–20.4% | 15.1–21.2% |
7 November 2024 | Forsa | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–4 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
4 November 2024 | Forsa | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–2 November 2024 | Ipsos | 18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.0–21.3% |
1 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
28–30 October 2024 | Infratest dimap | 17.0% | 15.8–18.4% | 15.4–18.8% | 15.1–19.1% | 14.5–19.8% |
23–29 October 2024 | Verian | 17.0% | 15.8–18.3% | 15.4–18.7% | 15.1–19.0% | 14.6–19.7% |
25–28 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.0% | 17.9–20.2% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.4–20.8% | 16.9–21.4% |
22–28 October 2024 | Forsa | 17.0% | 16.0–18.2% | 15.7–18.5% | 15.4–18.8% | 14.9–19.3% |
21–25 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
18–21 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.0% | 17.9–20.2% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.3–20.8% | 16.8–21.3% |
15–21 October 2024 | Forsa | 17.0% | 16.1–18.0% | 15.8–18.3% | 15.6–18.5% | 15.1–19.0% |
14–18 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.0% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.2–20.9% | 16.9–21.3% | 16.2–22.1% |
15–17 October 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 18.0% | 16.6–19.6% | 16.2–20.0% | 15.9–20.4% | 15.2–21.2% |
11–14 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18.5% | 17.4–19.6% | 17.1–20.0% | 16.8–20.3% | 16.3–20.8% |
8–14 October 2024 | Forsa | 17.0% | 16.0–18.0% | 15.8–18.3% | 15.6–18.5% | 15.1–19.0% |
7–11 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.0% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.2–20.9% | 16.8–21.3% | 16.2–22.0% |
11 October 2024 | Allensbach | 15.9% | 14.5–17.4% | 14.1–17.8% | 13.7–18.2% | 13.1–19.0% |
7–9 October 2024 | Infratest dimap | 17.0% | 15.8–18.4% | 15.4–18.8% | 15.1–19.2% | 14.5–19.8% |
4–8 October 2024 | YouGov | 18.0% | 16.9–19.2% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.3–19.9% | 15.7–20.5% |
4–7 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 20.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–7 October 2024 | Forsa | 17.0% | 15.9–18.1% | 15.7–18.4% | 15.4–18.7% | 14.9–19.3% |
2–4 October 2024 | Ipsos | 18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.0–21.3% |
4 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 20.0% | 18.6–21.5% | 18.2–21.9% | 17.8–22.3% | 17.2–23.0% |
1 October 2024 | Verian | 17.0% | 15.8–18.3% | 15.5–18.7% | 15.2–19.0% | 14.6–19.7% |
27–30 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.0% | 17.9–20.1% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.3–20.8% | 16.8–21.3% |
24–30 September 2024 | Forsa | 17.0% | 16.0–18.0% | 15.8–18.3% | 15.6–18.5% | 15.1–19.0% |
23–27 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
24–26 September 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 17.0% | 15.6–18.5% | 15.2–18.9% | 14.9–19.3% | 14.3–20.0% |
20–23 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 20.0% | 18.9–21.2% | 18.5–21.5% | 18.3–21.8% | 17.8–22.4% |
17–23 September 2024 | Forsa | 17.0% | 16.1–18.0% | 15.8–18.3% | 15.6–18.5% | 15.1–19.0% |
16–19 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 20.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
13–16 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.5% | 18.4–20.7% | 18.1–21.0% | 17.8–21.3% | 17.3–21.9% |
11–16 September 2024 | GMS | 18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.0–21.3% |
10–16 September 2024 | Forsa | 17.0% | 16.0–18.0% | 15.8–18.3% | 15.6–18.5% | 15.1–19.0% |
9–13 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.0% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.2–20.9% | 16.9–21.3% | 16.2–22.1% |
11 September 2024 | Allensbach | 17.0% | 15.6–18.6% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.8–19.4% | 14.2–20.2% |
6–10 September 2024 | YouGov | 18.0% | 16.8–19.2% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.2–19.9% | 15.7–20.5% |
6–9 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
3–9 September 2024 | Forsa | 17.0% | 16.1–18.0% | 15.8–18.3% | 15.6–18.5% | 15.1–19.0% |
6–7 September 2024 | Ipsos | 18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.0–21.3% |
2–6 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.0% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.2–20.9% | 16.8–21.3% | 16.2–22.0% |
3–5 September 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 17.0% | 15.6–18.5% | 15.2–18.9% | 14.9–19.3% | 14.3–20.0% |
3–4 September 2024 | Infratest dimap | 17.0% | 15.8–18.4% | 15.4–18.8% | 15.1–19.2% | 14.5–19.9% |
3 September 2024 | Verian | 17.0% | 15.8–18.4% | 15.5–18.7% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.6–19.7% |
2 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
2 September 2024 | Forsa | 17.0% | 16.0–18.0% | 15.8–18.3% | 15.6–18.5% | 15.1–19.0% |
26–30 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.0% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.2–20.9% | 16.8–21.3% | 16.2–22.0% |
23–26 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18.5% | 17.4–19.7% | 17.1–20.0% | 16.9–20.3% | 16.4–20.9% |
20–26 August 2024 | Forsa | 17.0% | 16.0–18.0% | 15.8–18.3% | 15.6–18.5% | 15.1–19.0% |
19–23 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18.0% | 16.6–19.5% | 16.2–19.9% | 15.9–20.3% | 15.3–21.0% |
16–19 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.0% | 17.9–20.2% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.3–20.8% | 16.8–21.3% |
13–19 August 2024 | Forsa | 17.0% | 16.1–18.0% | 15.8–18.3% | 15.6–18.5% | 15.2–19.0% |
12–16 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
3–15 August 2024 | Allensbach | 16.0% | 14.6–17.5% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.9–18.3% | 13.3–19.1% |
12–14 August 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 16.0% | 14.7–17.5% | 14.3–17.9% | 14.0–18.3% | 13.4–19.0% |
9–13 August 2024 | YouGov | 19.0% | 17.9–20.2% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.3–20.8% | 16.8–21.4% |
9–12 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18.0% | 16.9–19.1% | 16.6–19.4% | 16.4–19.7% | 15.9–20.3% |
6–12 August 2024 | GMS | 17.0% | 15.5–18.6% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.8–19.4% | 14.1–20.2% |
6–12 August 2024 | Forsa | 17.0% | 16.0–18.2% | 15.7–18.5% | 15.4–18.7% | 14.9–19.3% |
5–9 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
5–7 August 2024 | Infratest dimap | 16.0% | 14.8–17.4% | 14.4–17.8% | 14.1–18.1% | 13.5–18.8% |
31 July–6 August 2024 | Verian | 16.0% | 14.8–17.3% | 14.5–17.7% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.7–18.6% |
2–5 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17.0% | 15.9–18.1% | 15.7–18.4% | 15.4–18.7% | 14.9–19.3% |
5 August 2024 | Forsa | 17.0% | 16.0–18.1% | 15.7–18.4% | 15.4–18.7% | 14.9–19.3% |
2–4 August 2024 | Ipsos | 16.0% | 14.6–17.6% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.9–18.4% | 13.2–19.2% |
2 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
26–29 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18.0% | 16.9–19.1% | 16.6–19.5% | 16.4–19.8% | 15.9–20.3% |
23–29 July 2024 | Forsa | 17.0% | 16.0–18.1% | 15.7–18.5% | 15.4–18.7% | 14.9–19.3% |
22–26 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
19–22 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
16–22 July 2024 | Forsa | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
15–19 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
5–19 July 2024 | Allensbach | 17.0% | 15.6–18.7% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.8–19.5% | 14.2–20.3% |
12–15 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
9–15 July 2024 | Forsa | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
8–12 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
9–11 July 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 17.0% | 15.7–18.5% | 15.3–18.9% | 14.9–19.3% | 14.3–20.1% |
3–9 July 2024 | Verian | 16.0% | 14.8–17.3% | 14.5–17.7% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.7–18.6% |
5–8 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
2–8 July 2024 | Forsa | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
5–7 July 2024 | Ipsos | 16.0% | 14.6–17.6% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.9–18.4% | 13.2–19.2% |
1–5 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
3 July 2024 | YouGov | 18.8% | 17.6–20.1% | 17.3–20.4% | 17.0–20.7% | 16.5–21.4% |
1–3 July 2024 | Infratest dimap | 17.0% | 15.7–18.4% | 15.4–18.8% | 15.0–19.2% | 14.4–19.8% |
1 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1 July 2024 | Forsa | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
24–28 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
25–27 June 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
21–24 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
18–24 June 2024 | Forsa | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
17–21 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
14–17 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
11–17 June 2024 | GMS | 18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.0–21.3% |
11–17 June 2024 | Forsa | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
10–15 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
1–13 June 2024 | Allensbach | 15.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
10–12 June 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
5–11 June 2024 | Verian | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
7–10 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
4–10 June 2024 | Forsa | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Alternative für Deutschland (ESN).
Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
6.5–7.5% | 0% | 100% | |
7.5–8.5% | 0% | 100% | |
8.5–9.5% | 0% | 100% | |
9.5–10.5% | 0% | 100% | |
10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | |
11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
13.5–14.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
14.5–15.5% | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
15.5–16.5% | 6% | 98% | |
16.5–17.5% | 15% | 93% | |
17.5–18.5% | 27% | 78% | |
18.5–19.5% | 29% | 52% | Median |
19.5–20.5% | 16% | 23% | |
20.5–21.5% | 5% | 7% | |
21.5–22.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
22.5–23.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
23.5–24.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N/A | Poll Average | 18 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–20 |
16–19 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 20 | 19–20 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 |
17–19 December 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 17 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 |
16–18 December 2024 | Infratest dimap | 18 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 |
11–17 December 2024 | Verian | 17 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–19 |
13–16 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
10–16 December 2024 | Forsa | 19 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 |
9–13 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
12 December 2024 | Allensbach | 18 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 14–20 |
6–9 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
3–9 December 2024 | Forsa | |||||
2–6 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
3–5 December 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 17 | 15–17 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 13–19 |
2–4 December 2024 | Infratest dimap | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18–19 | 17–19 |
3 December 2024 | YouGov | 19 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–20 |
2 December 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 |
2 December 2024 | GMS | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 14–17 |
2 December 2024 | Forsa | 16 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 15–19 |
1 December 2024 | Ipsos | 17 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–20 |
25–29 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 14–19 |
20–26 November 2024 | Verian | 19 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 14–20 | 14–20 |
22–25 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 20 | 19–20 | 18–20 | 16–20 | 16–21 |
19–25 November 2024 | Forsa | 16 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 16–19 | 15–19 |
18–21 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 16–19 |
19–21 November 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 17 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–20 |
18–20 November 2024 | Infratest dimap | 18 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 16–20 |
15–18 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17 | 17–18 | 17–19 | 17–20 | 16–20 |
12–18 November 2024 | Forsa | 19 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 15–19 | 15–19 |
11–15 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
2–14 November 2024 | Allensbach | 15 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–20 |
8–12 November 2024 | YouGov | 19 | 18–19 | 18–19 | 17–19 | 17–19 |
8–11 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18–19 |
5–11 November 2024 | Forsa | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15–17 |
7–8 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
7 November 2024 | Infratest dimap | 18 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 |
5–7 November 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 18 | 16–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–21 |
7 November 2024 | Forsa | |||||
1–4 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
4 November 2024 | Forsa | |||||
1–2 November 2024 | Ipsos | 18 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–20 |
1 November 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
28–30 October 2024 | Infratest dimap | 17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 |
23–29 October 2024 | Verian | 16 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 |
25–28 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 17–20 |
22–28 October 2024 | Forsa | 15 | 15–16 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 15–19 |
21–25 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
18–21 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 20 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 |
15–21 October 2024 | Forsa | 17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 |
14–18 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 |
15–17 October 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 18 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 15–20 |
11–14 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–20 |
8–14 October 2024 | Forsa | 17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 |
7–11 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 16–21 |
11 October 2024 | Allensbach | 15 | 14–15 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 12–17 |
7–9 October 2024 | Infratest dimap | 17 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–18 |
4–8 October 2024 | YouGov | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
4–7 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
1–7 October 2024 | Forsa | 16 | 16–17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 |
2–4 October 2024 | Ipsos | 17 | 15–20 | 15–20 | 15–21 | 14–21 |
4 October 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 16–22 |
1 October 2024 | Verian | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16–17 | 15–18 |
27–30 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 |
24–30 September 2024 | Forsa | 16 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–18 |
23–27 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
24–26 September 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 17 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–18 |
20–23 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 17–22 |
17–23 September 2024 | Forsa | 16 | 16–17 | 16–17 | 16–17 | 15–17 |
16–19 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
13–16 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 |
11–16 September 2024 | GMS | 16 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–19 |
10–16 September 2024 | Forsa | 16 | 16 | 16–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 |
9–13 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18 | 18–19 | 18–20 | 17–20 | 16–20 |
11 September 2024 | Allensbach | 16 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 |
6–10 September 2024 | YouGov | 17 | 17–18 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 16–19 |
6–9 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
3–9 September 2024 | Forsa | 15 | 15–16 | 15–16 | 15–16 | 14–18 |
6–7 September 2024 | Ipsos | 16 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 14–20 | 14–21 |
2–6 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 18–20 | 16–20 |
3–5 September 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 16 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–18 |
3–4 September 2024 | Infratest dimap | 17 | 16–17 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–18 |
3 September 2024 | Verian | 16 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–18 |
2 September 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
2 September 2024 | Forsa | 17 | 16–17 | 16–17 | 16–17 | 16–17 |
26–30 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 16–21 |
23–26 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 19 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 17–20 | 16–20 |
20–26 August 2024 | Forsa | 16 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 14–19 |
19–23 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 16 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 13–20 |
16–19 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 17–20 | 16–20 |
13–19 August 2024 | Forsa | 17 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 |
12–16 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
3–15 August 2024 | Allensbach | 15 | 14–15 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 |
12–14 August 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 13 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 13–18 |
9–13 August 2024 | YouGov | 18 | 17–20 | 17–21 | 16–21 | 15–21 |
9–12 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 18 | 17–18 | 17–18 | 16–19 | 16–20 |
6–12 August 2024 | GMS | 15 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 13–18 |
6–12 August 2024 | Forsa | 17 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–18 |
5–9 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
5–7 August 2024 | Infratest dimap | 16 | 15–16 | 15–16 | 15–16 | 14–17 |
31 July–6 August 2024 | Verian | 15 | 15–16 | 14–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 |
2–5 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16–18 | 16–18 |
5 August 2024 | Forsa | 16 | 16–17 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–19 |
2–4 August 2024 | Ipsos | 15 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 12–18 |
2 August 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
26–29 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | 17 | 17–18 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–19 |
23–29 July 2024 | Forsa | 15 | 15–16 | 15–17 | 14–17 | 14–18 |
22–26 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
19–22 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
16–22 July 2024 | Forsa | |||||
15–19 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
5–19 July 2024 | Allensbach | 16 | 15–16 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 13–19 |
12–15 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
9–15 July 2024 | Forsa | |||||
8–12 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
9–11 July 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 17 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–19 |
3–9 July 2024 | Verian | 15 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 14–18 |
5–8 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
2–8 July 2024 | Forsa | |||||
5–7 July 2024 | Ipsos | 16 | 15–16 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 13–17 |
1–5 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
3 July 2024 | YouGov | 19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 |
1–3 July 2024 | Infratest dimap | 17 | 17 | 17 | 15–17 | 14–18 |
1 July 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
1 July 2024 | Forsa | |||||
24–28 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
25–27 June 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | |||||
21–24 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
18–24 June 2024 | Forsa | |||||
17–21 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
14–17 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
11–17 June 2024 | GMS | 19 | 16–19 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–21 |
11–17 June 2024 | Forsa | |||||
10–15 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
1–13 June 2024 | Allensbach | |||||
10–12 June 2024 | Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | |||||
5–11 June 2024 | Verian | |||||
7–10 June 2024 | INSA and YouGov | |||||
4–10 June 2024 | Forsa |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Alternative für Deutschland (ESN).
Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
---|---|---|---|
0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
1 | 0% | 100% | |
2 | 0% | 100% | |
3 | 0% | 100% | |
4 | 0% | 100% | |
5 | 0% | 100% | |
6 | 0% | 100% | |
7 | 0% | 100% | |
8 | 0% | 100% | |
9 | 0% | 100% | |
10 | 0% | 100% | |
11 | 0% | 100% | |
12 | 0% | 100% | |
13 | 0% | 100% | |
14 | 0.2% | 100% | |
15 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
16 | 13% | 99.2% | |
17 | 32% | 86% | |
18 | 17% | 54% | Median |
19 | 24% | 37% | |
20 | 13% | 13% | |
21 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
22 | 0% | 0% |